Germans went to the polls on Sunday, September 20, 2026, to vote in regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, 70, has called a crisis meeting of his centre-right CDU party leadership to discuss the first results as they come in. Merz has also cleared his calendar for the following days and skipped a trip to the UN General Assembly to deal with potential aftershocks from the votes.
The elections come at a challenging time for Merz, whose approval ratings have plummeted and who has struggled to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his centre-left coalition partners, the SPD. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) recently dealt a stunning defeat to Merz's CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, fuelling speculation that internal party support for Merz is wobbling.
Polls suggest that the AfD will make fresh gains in Sunday's vote, although it is unlikely to come within reach of power in either state. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Merz's CDU faces a tough battle, with the AfD polling at 36 percent and the SPD at 37 percent. Merz's CDU is at just six percent, dangerously close to missing the five-percent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament.
In the city-state of Berlin, the ruling CDU is running a neck-and-neck race against the far-left Die Linke, which promises drastic steps to solve a dire housing crisis and is popular with young people. A CDU defeat in either state would be a black eye for Merz, who has struggled to reboot a flagging economy, rebuild the military, and reduce irregular immigration.
Merz received some support from CDU powerbrokers on Wednesday, with eight state premiers declaring jointly that Germany needs "stability now more than ever" rather than "discussions about personnel". However, they refrained from issuing a personal endorsement for Merz. Pollster Roland Abold of the Infratest Dimap research institute described Merz's situation as "quite dramatic", with his personal approval ratings hovering just above 10 percent.
Some commentators point out that many of Merz's problems have originated abroad, including the Ukraine and Middle East wars, which have sent energy prices surging and fuelled a cost-of-living crisis. Berenberg bank chief economist Holger Schmieding argued that Merz's travails are being exacerbated by the surge in petrol prices and the public debate about his future.
Despite the challenges, Schmieding judged it more likely than not that Merz would weather the current political storm and serve out his term until 2029. The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will be seen as a test of Merz's leadership and his ability to navigate the complex German political landscape.
Key points
- Merz's CDU party faces tough battles in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- The far-right AfD is likely to make fresh gains in Sunday's vote.
- Merz's approval ratings have plummeted amid a cost-of-living crisis and struggles to push through reforms.
