Rigathi Gachagua's engagement with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and former Kitui governor Charity Ngilu is exposing a contest over regional influence and opposition leadership ahead of the 2027 General Election. Gachagua hosted Ngilu at his Wamunyoro home days after hosting Kalonzo Musyoka, a move seen as an attempt to revive the Narc model through a "Coalition of the Mountains". This coalition aims to link Mt Kenya with Mt Elgon in Sifuna's Bungoma backyard.
The proposed coalition has sparked concerns among Kalonzo's allies, who see the engagement as an attempt to weaken Wiper in Lower Eastern. Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua accused Ngilu of repeatedly undermining Kalonzo's presidential ambitions, describing her as a "known political opportunist". Wambua claimed Ngilu had worked with Kalonzo's rivals during the last elections to subject him to vetting over his suitability to deputise the late Raila Odinga.
However, Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo, another Kalonzo ally, dismissed suggestions that the engagement was aimed at undermining the Wiper leader. Maanzo said Ngilu is working with them and that there was nothing fishy in her meeting with Gachagua. He argued that the opposition cannot afford to exclude any presidential aspirant or party, and that no single community or two communities can win an election alone.
The competition for Western Kenya's support has made it difficult for Sifuna to consolidate the region's voting bloc. Insiders in the Gachagua-Sifuna camp say they are deploying the UhuRuto 2013 playbook to wrest Lower Eastern through Ngilu, should Kalonzo refuse to play ball. This move could challenge Kalonzo's influence in Lower Eastern and potentially undermine his presidential bid.
Gachagua credited Ngilu with helping craft the 2002 Narc strategy, saying the opposition will eventually settle on one presidential candidate. However, Kalonzo has cautioned against an early choice, insisting that consultations and formal structures must precede the nomination. Kalonzo's allies at the Coast have vowed to support him in a solo presidential bid if he is denied the opposition ticket.
The opposition's coalition talks have been jolted into confronting competing interests, with various leaders pushing for different agendas. Political analyst Geoffrey Mboya said the Ngilu engagement could broaden coalition talks but risked creating a rival centre of influence in Kalonzo's Lower Eastern stronghold. He noted that the 2002 Narc success rested on rival leaders agreeing on a common candidate and campaigning under one banner.
The proposed Coalition of the Mountains is an idea yet to crystallise into an alliance, according to advocate Chris Omore. Omore said Kalonzo risks losing political ground if he fails to accommodate other opposition players. The outcome of these coalition talks will be crucial in shaping the opposition's strategy ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Key points
- Gachagua's coalition talks with Sifuna and Ngilu challenge Kalonzo's influence in Lower Eastern.
- The proposed Coalition of the Mountains aims to link Mt Kenya with Mt Elgon.
- Kalonzo's allies have vowed to support him in a solo presidential bid if he is denied the opposition ticket.
