Fuel prices in Tanzania are expected to remain high until December or early 2027 due to continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which are keeping global oil markets volatile. The Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (Ewura) recently raised fuel price caps for October, reversing three consecutive months of declines. This move has raised concerns among consumers and oil marketers, who are warning of the potential impact on the economy.
The Tanzania Association of Oil Marketing Companies (Taomac) executive director, Raphael Mgaya, has warned that the outlook for fuel prices remains uncertain, with geopolitical tensions limiting the possibility of significant relief in the short term. He stated that fuel currently entering the market was ordered in August, before the latest deterioration in the geopolitical situation, meaning the effects of the disruption are now being reflected in domestic prices.
Prolonged instability is also increasing operating and financing costs, as disruptions to supply chains make it more expensive to transport petroleum products. According to Mgaya, no government can protect itself 100 percent from such shocks, but mitigation measures can be taken to adapt to the situation. The Government had earlier tasked the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) with sourcing petroleum products on its behalf during periods of global market disruption.
Ewura announced new maximum retail prices effective October 8, 2026, raising the price of petrol in Dar es Salaam by Sh261 to Sh4,057 a litre and diesel by Sh209 to Sh4,086. The increases followed a rise in international prices of refined petroleum products during September, which Ewura attributed to renewed Middle East tensions affecting oil production, supply, and shipping.
TPDC managing director, Mussa Makame, stated that the Government is closely monitoring developments in the international market and will take action when necessary. He said the latest increase followed a reversal in global oil prices after fighting resumed between the United States, Israel, and Iran, following a period of relative calm. This has led to concerns about the impact on fuel prices in Tanzania.
The impact of the price increase is more pronounced in some inland markets, where transport and distribution costs push prices higher. For example, Kyerwa District in Kagera has the highest October petrol cap at Sh4,370 a litre, while diesel is capped at Sh4,399. In contrast, at the Port of Tanga, petrol is capped at Sh4,123 a litre and diesel at Sh4,152.
Ewura director general, Salum Mnuna, stated that the Government is monitoring global developments and taking measures to safeguard supplies and keep prices affordable. The October figures are maximum retail prices, meaning oil marketing companies can sell below the caps while remaining within regulatory requirements. The Government is working to mitigate the impact of the price increase on consumers.
Key points
- Fuel prices in Tanzania may stay high until December or early 2027.
- Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving global oil market volatility.
- The Government is monitoring developments and taking measures to safeguard supplies and keep prices affordable.
