The rising cost of aviation fuel is forcing Nigerian airlines to rethink their routes, but this does not necessarily indicate a shrinking domestic aviation industry. According to Dr. Alex Nwuba, President of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association of Nigeria (AOPAN), the withdrawal of airlines from less profitable routes represents a necessary market correction. This correction follows years of deploying relatively large aircraft on sectors with insufficient passenger demand.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Aero Contractors, Captain Ado Sanusi, recently warned that airlines may abandon destinations that are no longer commercially viable due to high fuel prices. International carriers have taken similar decisions during periods of high fuel prices. Air Peace has also described fuel availability and pricing as a major operational challenge, disrupting their domestic, regional, and international network sequencing.
Although aviation fuel is reportedly available, its high price remains a major concern for operators. In May, Sanusi raised an alarm, stating that routes that fail to cover their operating costs would have to be discontinued due to extremely thin profit margins. However, he assured passengers that cost-cutting measures would not compromise safety. The crisis worsened in April when the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) reported that the price of Jet A1 had jumped from about N900 per litre to approximately N3,300.
The Federal Government introduced a 30 per cent reduction in statutory airline charges, and indicative Jet A1 prices in Lagos were put at between N1,760 and N1,988 per litre. However, the relief has been uneven, with AON warning that aviation fuel prices had again exceeded N2,500 per litre in some locations and that supplies remained unreliable at certain secondary airports. For airlines, the implications are considerable, with Jet A1 accounting for an estimated 40 per cent of operating costs.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has lowered its 2026 profit forecast for African airlines to $100 million, half the $200 million projected in December 2025 and significantly below the $300 million recorded in 2025. The effect of the pressure is already evident in the domestic market, with Rano Air suspending several routes it considered commercially unsustainable. The carrier has focused on higher-yield trunk connections between Kano, Abuja, and Lagos.
Dr. Nwuba believes that the withdrawals tell only part of the story, describing the development as a “market correction” following years of structural imbalance in the domestic airline market. He traced the evolution of Nigerian airline fleets, noting that operators initially relied heavily on Boeing 737s for domestic services before moving towards regional jets. The sharp increase in fuel prices has disrupted this model, making relatively large jets increasingly uneconomic on thin domestic routes.
Nwuba sees the withdrawals as “a strategic withdrawal from inefficiency” rather than evidence of failing airlines. He expects the eventual redistribution of aircraft and capacity to produce a more sustainable market, with larger narrow-body jets deployed on regional and higher-demand routes while turboprops and smaller regional aircraft serve thinner domestic markets. This consolidation is not a sign of weakness but of maturity, according to Nwuba.
Key points
- Nigerian airlines adjust routes amid rising aviation fuel costs.
- AOPAN President sees route cuts as market correction, not industry contraction.
- Industry faces significant challenges, with Jet A1 accounting for 40% of operating costs.
