The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party since the end of apartheid, is facing a significant challenge to its dominance. Founded in 1912, the ANC united people against colonialism and helped shape the country's constitutional democracy. Despite its achievements, including promoting gender equality and building a non-racial liberation movement, the party's performance in recent years has been criticized. The ANC's decline has led some to suggest that freedom from the party could be a new era of emancipation for South Africans.
The ANC's decline is attributed to various factors, including succession battles, factionalism, and corruption. According to Mondli Makhanya, a newspaperman, the party's troubles began in 2001 when succession battles started to poison the ANC from within. The Polokwane conference in 2007 marked a culmination of this civil war, which the party never recovered from. By 2016, voters were losing interest in the ANC's manifesto launches. Makhanya predicts a two-stage funeral for the ANC, with the first stage occurring on November 4 and the final stage in 2029.
The ANC's recent troubles include a significant setback when it lost an Electoral Court appeal due to failing to submit the names of 181 municipal candidates by the deadline. This development has led to concerns about the party's ability to govern effectively. The party's candidate-list failure has been attributed to incompetence, with some suggesting that officials at Luthuli House, the ANC's headquarters, failed to press "submit" on the list of candidates.
The ANC's decline has also led to infighting and power struggles within the party. Eastern Cape ANC secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi has threatened legal action against secretary-general Fikile Mbalula over who is to blame for the candidate-list failure. Mbalula is also in court with Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma over her vote-buying allegations. This infighting has raised concerns about the party's ability to govern effectively.
Despite the ANC's decline, it is not expected to disappear completely. Other parties, including the Congress of the People (Cope), the United Democratic Movement (UDM), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the MK party, have emerged from the ANC but quarrel over its inheritance. These parties have different visions for the country, with some championing integrity and non-racialism, while others focus on economic empowerment and liberation.
The ANC's potential loss of power raises questions about the future of South Africa. In the 2024 national election, the ANC won 40.18% of the vote, while the EFF and MK party received significant support. The arithmetic of these votes suggests that a coalition government could be formed, but it is unclear what this would mean for the country's governance. A government without the ANC could bring about significant changes, including improved service delivery and more effective governance.
Ultimately, changing the party in power does not necessarily resolve the national question of addressing poverty, unemployment, landlessness, spatial injustice, and inequality. The ANC's 1969 Morogoro strategy and tactics set a harder test for liberation, which included economic emancipation. The national question remains, and any incoming government will need to address these challenges. The ANC's legacy will be complex, with both achievements and failures.
Key points
- The ANC's decline has led to concerns about its ability to govern effectively.
- The party's potential loss of power raises questions about the future of South Africa.
- Changing the party in power does not necessarily resolve the national question of addressing poverty and inequality.
