Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria's economic outlook to Positive from Stable, citing sustained economic reforms, rising foreign exchange reserves, moderating inflation, and improved external buffers. The country's credit rating has been affirmed at 'B'. This development reflects growing confidence in the sustainability of Nigeria's reform programme. The Positive Outlook indicates that Nigeria's credit rating could be upgraded if the improvements identified by Fitch are sustained.
A major factor behind the revised outlook is the growth in Nigeria's gross external reserves, which stood at $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with $32 billion in mid-April 2024. According to Fitch, the increase was supported by greater formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, higher export receipts, and remittances. The agency also noted that improvements in the quality of the reserves had strengthened the country's capacity to withstand external shocks.
The development represents another positive assessment of the Federal Government's economic policies, following earlier favourable actions by other international rating agencies. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's rating to 'B' from 'B-' in May 2026, while Moody's Ratings revised its outlook on the country to Positive in August. Similarly, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the latest assessment reinforced the government's commitment to sustaining reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu. These reforms include the removal of the fuel subsidy, exchange rate unification, and tax reforms. However, Oyedele acknowledged that the government remained conscious of the economic challenges highlighted by Fitch, particularly elevated inflation, weak revenue mobilisation, and the high proportion of government revenue consumed by interest payments.
On economic growth, Fitch forecasts that Nigeria's real GDP will expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from four per cent in 2025. Growth is expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, with non-oil activities remaining the principal driver of growth over the period. Nigeria's oil sector has also recorded improvements, with crude oil production meeting the country's Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
Fitch projects average inflation to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level. However, the agency cautioned that inflation remains higher than in comparable countries. On public finances, Fitch expects the implementation of tax reforms to improve non-oil revenue mobilisation relative to the size of the economy. It projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the median of 56 per cent for countries rated 'B'.
The Federal Government said its reform agenda was designed to address economic challenges through improved tax administration, spending efficiency, transparent debt management, and structural reforms to support economic diversification. Sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, effective implementation of reforms, and improved non-oil revenue mobilisation remain critical to further positive rating actions. The administration's medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment-grade status.
Key points
- Fitch upgrades Nigeria's outlook to Positive, citing economic reforms and $54.9bn reserves.
- Nigeria's real GDP is forecast to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026.
- The government remains committed to sustaining reforms introduced under President Bola Tinubu.
