Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria's credit outlook from stable to positive, while retaining the country's long-term issuer default rating at 'B'. This decision was announced on October 9, 2026, and cited stronger foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation, and continued economic reforms as key factors. The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this information in a statement issued on October 10, 2026, by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.
Nigeria's gross foreign exchange reserves have significantly increased to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared to $32 billion in mid-April 2024. The ministry attributed this rise to stronger formal foreign exchange transactions, portfolio investment inflows, higher export receipts, and remittances. This improvement in foreign reserves is a positive indicator of Nigeria's external position.
Fitch also projected a current account surplus equivalent to 6.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2026, indicating a significant improvement in Nigeria's external position. The agency's assessment highlighted greater flexibility in the naira exchange rate and progress in reducing inflation. Average inflation is projected to fall to 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
Fitch expects Nigeria's economy to grow by 4.3 percent in 2026, compared to 4 percent in 2025. The agency projects growth to remain above 4 percent in 2027 and 2028, driven mainly by non-oil activities. Additionally, crude oil production has met Nigeria's OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
The ministry noted that increased domestic refining is helping to reduce refined petroleum imports and demand for foreign exchange. On public finances, Fitch expects Nigeria's tax reforms to improve non-oil revenue collection. The agency projects general government debt to average 32 percent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the 56 percent median for countries in the 'B' rating category.
Fitch recognised the depth of Nigeria's domestic debt market and the banking sector's recapitalisation exercise. Many banks have capital adequacy ratios above 20 percent, exceeding regulatory minimums. However, the government acknowledged that significant challenges remain, including inflation above levels in comparable countries, weak revenue generation relative to the size of the economy, and high debt-servicing costs.
The ministry said the Fitch decision followed other positive developments in Nigeria's credit profile in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's rating from 'B-' to 'B' in May, while Moody's Ratings revised the country's outlook from stable to positive in August. The government remains committed to sustaining reforms in foreign exchange management, tax administration, public spending, debt management, and economic diversification.
Key points
- Fitch revises Nigeria's credit outlook to positive, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves and easing inflation.
- Nigeria's economy is projected to grow by 4.3 percent in 2026.
- The government remains committed to sustaining reforms to achieve investment-grade status.
