The Federal Government of Nigeria has taken note of the decision by Fitch Ratings to revise the outlook on Nigeria's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable, while affirming the ratings at 'B'. This development was announced by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy, Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, on October 10, 2026. According to Oyedele, a Positive Outlook signals that the rating could be raised if current trends are sustained.
Fitch attributed the improved outlook to greater naira flexibility, disinflation, and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. As of September 25, 2026, Nigeria's gross reserves stood at USD54.9 billion, up from USD32 billion in mid-April 2024. This increase was supported by the formalization of foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, and higher export receipts and remittances. The agency noted that improved reserve quality has strengthened Nigeria's resilience to external shocks.
The agency projects a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026 and forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025. Fitch expects growth to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028, led by non-oil activity. Crude oil production has met Nigeria's OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while the ramp-up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and demand for foreign exchange.
Fitch also pointed to improving performance in the real economy, with average inflation forecast to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level. On public finances and the financial sector, Fitch expects tax reforms to lift non-oil revenue to GDP ratio. It projects general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP over 2026 to 2028, well below the 'B' median of 56 per cent.
The Minister stated that with this action, all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to 'B' from 'B-' in May, and Moody's Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August. Separately, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026.
Oyedele emphasized that the Government's medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade. The Government reaffirms its commitment to the priorities that underpin Nigeria's improving credit profile, including sustaining reform momentum and a disciplined, market-reflective and transparent foreign exchange regime. The Ministry notes Fitch's guidance that positive rating action could follow from sustained disinflation and reform implementation.
The Government also takes note of the areas where Fitch sees room for further progress, including inflation, government revenue, and interest costs. These are the constraints the Government's reform programme is designed to address. Oyedele stated that the Government is committed to these reforms, which will lower Nigeria's cost of capital, crowd in private investment, and create decent jobs at scale.
Key points
- Fitch Ratings revises Nigeria's outlook to positive, citing ongoing reforms and improved economic prospects.
- Nigeria's gross reserves increase to USD54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026.
- The Government aims to place Nigeria on the path to investment grade in the medium term.
