The global credit rating agency Fitch has affirmed Egypt's rating at "B" with a stable outlook, a decision welcomed by economic experts and the Finance Ministry. The ministry attributed the positive outcome to consistent and proactive policies, which have contributed to a growth rate of 5.1 percent during the 2025/2026 fiscal year. This growth was driven by expansion in the manufacturing, telecommunications, and information technology sectors.
The Finance Ministry highlighted several key economic indicators, including a primary surplus of 4.9 percent of GDP and an overall budget deficit that narrowed to 5.8 percent in the 2025/2026 fiscal year. The ministry also noted a 27 percent increase in tax revenues, achieved without imposing new burdens, coinciding with the implementation of tax facilitation packages. These outcomes demonstrate the Egyptian economy's resilience and ability to absorb shocks amidst regional turmoil.
Despite the positive rating, the Finance Ministry acknowledged that high debt-service costs remain a primary challenge, particularly with rising interest rates. The ministry noted that the debt-service bill will drop significantly once interest rates decline. To mitigate refinancing risks, the medium-term debt management strategy aims to extend maturities and diversify both instruments and the investor base.
Experts have offered their insights on Fitch's decision, with Alia al-Mahdy, former Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University, describing the rating as "positive." Yomn al-Hamaky, a professor of economics at Ain Shams University, noted that the rating aligns with macroeconomic indicators that have garnered the approval of international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund.
Amr Youssef, a professor of economics and financial and tax legislation, described Fitch's decision as "cautious," citing several key factors, including the level of foreign currency reserves held by the Central Bank of Egypt, which reached approximately $58 billion in September. He also pointed to the Egyptian economy's ability to absorb the "hot money" crisis without resorting to restrictive measures.
Abdel-Rasoul Abdel-Hadi, a professor of accounting and taxation at Tanta University, emphasized the importance of relying on a purely homegrown economic program in the coming period, independent of the International Monetary Fund. He suggested that Egypt should focus on boosting tourism and remittances from Egyptians abroad, as well as implementing a national plan to build factories.
The Finance Ministry reaffirmed its commitment to pursuing balanced fiscal policies that stimulate economic activity while maintaining stability and fiscal discipline. The ministry will intensify efforts alongside government and private sector partners to foster growth driven by production and exports. With a stable outlook, Egypt's economy is poised for continued growth and resilience in the face of regional challenges.
Key points
- Egypt's economy has demonstrated resilience with a growth rate of 5.1 percent during the 2025/2026 fiscal year.
- The primary surplus reached 4.9 percent of GDP, while the overall budget deficit narrowed to 5.8 percent in the 2025/2026 fiscal year.
- Experts emphasize the need for a homegrown economic program and balanced fiscal policies to maintain stability and foster growth.
