A recent assessment by American expert Geoff D. Porter, a specialist in North African oil and gas issues, has cast doubt on the feasibility of Morocco's proposed Africa-Atlantic gas pipeline project. In a statement on his social media platform, Porter asserted that the project, which aims to connect Nigeria to the Atlantic coast via Morocco, will never be realized. He cited significant economic concerns, including the project's unviable business model.
According to Porter, a major issue with the project is that it would traverse 11 countries, each demanding a 5% transit fee in kind. This, he argues, fundamentally questions the project's viability. The multiplicity of transit fee agreements would likely delay any return on investment beyond the horizon of potential investors. Porter's concerns highlight the complexities and challenges associated with large-scale, multi-country infrastructure projects.
The expert emphasized that countries produce gas for sale and that pipeline projects require clients who pay fees for infrastructure use to ensure a return on investment. He believes the Africa-Atlantic gas pipeline project fails to meet these basic economic conditions. For Porter, the project overlooks two critical aspects: enabling producer countries to sell their gas for revenue and securing sufficient income to guarantee a return on investment.
Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune previously mentioned the project in an interview with national press representatives. He expressed concerns about the project's economic equation, citing the volume of gas taken by each country versus expected revenues. This aligns with Porter's analysis, suggesting that even some African leaders have reservations about the project's feasibility.
In contrast, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) project, connecting Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria, has entered a phase of concretization. Work began on the Algerian section in June, and topographic surveys on the Nigerien section are set to start in October. This project, spanning nearly 4,000 km with a capacity of 20-30 billion m3 of gas per year, seems more viable and has the potential to enhance regional energy and economic integration.
The TSGP project offers additional benefits, including opening new access to Nigerian gas resources and strengthening Niger's role as a transit country. It also consolidates Algeria's position as an energy hub linking resources. This stands in stark contrast to the proposed Morocco-Atlantic pipeline, which appears to be facing significant economic and practical hurdles.
As the African energy landscape continues to evolve, the doubts cast over the Morocco-Atlantic gas pipeline project raise questions about its potential realization. With experts like Geoff D. Porter highlighting substantial economic concerns, it remains to be seen whether Morocco can overcome these challenges and make the project a reality. The project's fate will likely have implications for regional energy dynamics and economic cooperation.
Key points
- The proposed Morocco-Atlantic gas pipeline project is economically unviable due to its business model and transit fee structure.
- The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project has entered a phase of concretization, offering a more viable alternative for regional energy integration.
- Expert Geoff D. Porter's assessment aligns with concerns expressed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune about the project's economic feasibility.
