Evaluating Nigeria's Governance Beyond Treasury Savings

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, citizens will evaluate the performance of candidates who have previously held leadership positions. A key consideration is the impact of their tenure on the lives of citizens, including infrastructure development, improved lives, strengthened institutions, and created opportunities. This approach goes beyond merely assessing how much money a candidate claims to have left in government coffers. Governance cannot be reduced to the size of a bank balance, as fiscal discipline must be balanced with investing in development and improving citizens' quality of life.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration has faced significant economic challenges and implemented difficult reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy and foreign-exchange reforms. These measures have created hardship for many Nigerians but aim to address longstanding distortions and establish a more sustainable economic framework. The administration has also pursued major infrastructure projects, such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Highway, and railway projects, which can improve connectivity, reduce transportation costs, stimulate trade, and create employment.

The Tinubu administration has expanded access to student financing through NELFUND and initiated housing and transportation projects to improve opportunities for Nigerians. In the energy sector, efforts to expand domestic refining capacity and CNG initiatives aim to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and provide more affordable transportation alternatives. Additionally, the government has pursued increased revenue mobilisation, higher oil production, improved foreign-exchange management, and economic diversification through the solid minerals sector.

Security remains a major concern in Nigeria, but the administration has intensified military operations against terrorists and bandits, with reported improvements in some affected areas. Sustained efforts to restore security are essential for economic activity and national development. The administration has also made progress in reducing the debt-service-to-revenue burden, potentially creating greater fiscal space for development.

Borrowing should not automatically be regarded as evidence of poor governance; instead, the focus should be on why the money was borrowed, the cost, the repayment capacity, and what the funds achieved. Productive borrowing that delivers infrastructure and economic value can be more beneficial than resources left idle. This approach will be crucial in evaluating the performance of candidates in the 2027 presidential election.

The strongest case for President Tinubu in 2027 is continuity, as Nigeria has embarked on a difficult transition that should be consolidated rather than repeatedly abandoned. Infrastructure projects require continuity, reforms require time, and businesses and investors need policy stability. President Tinubu has demonstrated a willingness to make politically difficult decisions in pursuit of long-term economic objectives.

Ultimately, the 2027 elections should focus on what the government will leave behind for the people, rather than who will leave the largest treasury balance or avoid borrowing. Nigerians should ask: what will the government leave behind? Tinubu's ongoing reforms and projects provide a strong case for giving his administration the opportunity to consolidate and complete the work already begun.

Key points

• Evaluating candidates based on their impact on citizens' lives, not just treasury savings.