Europe's political landscape is undergoing a significant shift as the far right gains momentum, posing a threat to the continent's stability and the rules-based order. Recent elections in Germany have delivered a sharp rebuke to the centre-right, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) suffering a significant defeat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won with 38% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats on 35.5%. This result raises concerns about the future of Germany's political landscape and the potential for the far right to form a government in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.
The CDU's defeat has sparked a crisis of leadership, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz facing criticism for his handling of the election. Merz has called the results a "disaster" and has summoned senior party leaders to CDU headquarters to test their loyalty. However, many in Germany believe that Merz's position is untenable, and talk of replacing him has moved from gossiping in Berlin bars into the open. Merz has been Chancellor for 16 months and is widely regarded as the least popular chancellor of the post-war era.
The trend of far-right victories in Germany is part of a broader pattern of fragmentation and splintering of the centre in European politics. Years of economic stagnation have helped to fracture the political establishment, making it harder to escape the stagnation. Fragmented electorates produce weaker, less cohesive governments, which are less likely to push through tough economic reforms. This has significant implications for the future of European politics and the ability of governments to address the continent's economic challenges.
The case for Merz's survival rests on his ability to push through economic reforms, including changes to pensions, unemployment benefits, and labour rules. His coalition is due to adopt these changes in the coming months, which he hopes will lift business confidence and eventually restore growth. However, it is unclear whether this will be enough to rescue his political career. A change of leadership may be necessary to revitalize the CDU and provide a more effective response to the far-right challenge.
The experience of Hungary offers a potential clue to the challenge facing the European centre. Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider, campaigned on a socially conservative platform paired with economic pragmatism and a constructive line on Europe and Ukraine. This combination took the populist right's strongest issues off the table while exposing its weakest. Magyar's success highlights the need for the European centre to find a more effective way to respond to the far-right challenge.
Germany's economic challenges are significant, with the country's post-war economic model facing significant headwinds. The three pillars of Germany's economic model - cheap Russian gas, Chinese demand for its industrial goods, and the US as a dependable security guarantor - have all evaporated. The carmakers have lost their competitive edge to Chinese EV makers, and the welfare state has become an unaffordable luxury. High employment costs are deterring businesses from hiring, making it difficult for Germany to restore growth.
The implications of Europe's political shift extend far beyond the continent. The rules-based order that Europe has long championed is under threat, and countries like South Africa, which have long cast themselves as exemplary middle powers committed to upholding international law, should be concerned. If Europe's centre gives way, the order it underwrites goes with it, leaving countries to fend for themselves in a more uncertain and unstable world.
Key points
- Europe's political centre is fracturing as economic stagnation fuels the far right.
- The far right is gaining momentum in Germany, posing a threat to the country's stability and the rules-based order.
- The implications of Europe's political shift extend far beyond the continent, with significant consequences for countries like South Africa.
