The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released its October electoral map, which suggests that ethnicity and religion will play a significant role in determining the outcome of Nigeria's presidential and other elections scheduled for January 2027. According to PIG, led by Lai Omotola, publisher of Politico.ng, this projection should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election result. The group emphasized that its monthly electoral map is designed to provide political parties and stakeholders with an assessment of their areas of strength and weakness.
PIG's October projection reflected major political events and realignments recorded across the country in September, as well as the increasing mobilisation by political parties ahead of the 2027 poll. Some of the developments identified by the group include the denial of entry into Benue State to Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor and Labour Party presidential candidate, and controversy surrounding President Bola Tinubu's working vacation and allegations of presidential absenteeism. Additionally, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar's renewed campaign on fuel subsidy and growing party mobilisation through rallies and other political activities were also noted.
In its October projection, PIG placed the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead with 19 states, down from 20 states in its September assessment. The group said the APC lost Rivers State but gained Adamawa State, resulting in a net loss of one state. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), which was projected to control nine states in September, lost Adamawa to the APC, reducing its October tally to eight states. Meanwhile, the New Nigeria Democratic Party (NDC) increased its projected states from eight in September to 10 in October.
PIG emphasised that the figures represent a snapshot of the political landscape rather than a forecast of the eventual election result. The group also stated that the projection was based on the assumption that the 2027 election would be free and fair. Furthermore, PIG identified the emerging confrontation between APC governors and Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, as a development that could have implications for the 2027 presidential contest.
Beyond the electoral map, PIG noted that religion and ethnicity could shape voter behaviour more significantly than economic conditions and other campaign issues. The group said candidates and political parties seeking victory in 2027 would need to understand how religious and ethnic considerations influence voting patterns across Nigeria's diverse geopolitical landscape. This assessment places particular emphasis on identity-based political mobilisation.
PIG also assessed the potential impact of the Supreme Court's recent judgment concerning the amended Electoral Act, saying the decision would have limited implications for the 2027 presidential contest. Additionally, the group challenged presidential candidates advocating a return to fuel subsidy to provide clear details on how such a policy would be financed and implemented. PIG said promises to restore subsidy should go beyond campaign rhetoric.
With political parties stepping up mobilisation ahead of 2027, PIG said the evolving electoral map should be viewed as an assessment of the current political landscape rather than a definitive indication of the eventual winner. The group encouraged candidates to show how they intend to fund and sustain their subsidy regime, if proposed.
Key points
- Ethnicity and religion will outweigh economic considerations in determining the outcome of Nigeria's 2027 presidential and other elections.
- The APC is currently leading in PIG's October electoral map with 19 states.
- Candidates advocating a return to fuel subsidy must provide clear details on financing and implementation.
