Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the Tigré forces, Amhara Fano militia, and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), have formed an alliance to topple the federal government and facilitate the establishment of a transitional government. The alliance was announced on Sunday by Amanuel Assefa, vice-president of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The groups have been discussing the alliance for over a year.
The alliance brings together groups from various regions, including Somali, Afar, Ogaden, and Benishangul-Gumuz. The Fano militia will reportedly lead the alliance. According to Amanuel Assefa, the groups' objectives are to overthrow the current regime and facilitate a transition to a new government. The federal authorities have not yet responded to the announcement.
Ethiopia, with a population of around 130 million, has faced several years of armed conflicts, particularly in the Oromia and Amhara regions. The OLA, classified as a terrorist organization by Addis Abeba, has been fighting federal forces in Oromia since 2018. The Fano militia took up arms against the government in 2023.
Analyst Kjetil Tronvoll believes that while the alliance is significant, the groups currently lack the capacity for a prolonged conflict against federal forces, which possess numerous drones. However, coordinated military efforts could force the government to confront multiple fronts. The alliance includes groups that have previously clashed, such as the Fano, which fought alongside federal forces during the Tigré war from 2020 to 2022.
The Tigré war resulted in at least 600,000 deaths, according to the African Union. The western Tigré region remains a contentious issue between Tigréans and Amharas, with nationalist Amharas currently administering the area. Amanuel Assefa assured that the groups would address their differences peacefully in the future.
However, analyst Kjetil Tronvoll notes that the groups' divergent political ideologies and objectives could become a significant obstacle if the government is overthrown. The TPLF, Fano, and OLA have distinct goals, which may not be compatible in a post-Abiy Ahmed era. The federal government's response to the alliance remains unclear.
The development has significant implications for Ethiopia's stability and security. The country has struggled with conflicts in various regions, and the emergence of a united front among armed groups could escalate tensions. The international community is closely watching the situation, as Ethiopia's internal conflicts have regional and global implications.
Key points
- The alliance includes seven armed groups, with the Fano militia set to take the lead.
- The groups' objectives are to overthrow the current regime and facilitate a transition to a new government.
- The alliance brings together groups from various regions, including Somali, Afar, Ogaden, and Benishangul-Gumuz.
