The conflict in northern Ethiopia has reignited, with clashes reported in Tigray and neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. The fighting, which began on Wednesday, has already resulted in a significant escalation, with the federal military claiming to have inflicted heavy losses on Tigrayan forces. According to the Ethiopian National Defence Force's North East Command, 436 Tigrayan fighters were killed and 220 wounded in a second rout since Wednesday.
A communications blackout has been imposed across Tigray, with internet and phone networks going dark on Friday. The blackout, which has affected both state-owned Ethio Telecom and private operator Safaricom's Ethiopian network, has raised concerns about the humanitarian situation in the region. During the 2020-2022 war, a similar shutdown helped seal the region off from food, cash, and medicine, leading to famine-like suffering for hundreds of thousands of people.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government have traded accusations over who is responsible for the blackout. A diplomatic source and three other sources claim that the TPLF ordered the shutdown to blunt the federal military's battlefield edge in drones, which are reportedly guided through mobile connectivity. However, a source close to the TPLF denied this, blaming the federal government instead.
The conflict has significant implications for the region, with Sudan's civil war continuing to displace millions next door and Red Sea shipping routes remaining a live flashpoint for regional and global powers. A renewed Tigray war also raises concerns about the durability of internationally brokered peace deals in Africa. The Pretoria peace agreement, which was brokered with African Union involvement, had been held up as a model of African-led conflict resolution.
The TPLF has resorted to forced recruitment of young men in recent months, intensifying since Wednesday, according to local and international human rights groups and multiple residents inside Tigray. The TPLF denies this, but the allegation suggests that the movement is straining to rebuild its fighting capacity at speed. The federal government accuses Eritrea of bankrolling the TPLF and its allies, a charge Asmara denies.
The conflict has already resulted in significant humanitarian concerns, with residents rushing to shops and cash machines in anticipation of a prolonged crisis. The blackout has also made it difficult to verify casualty figures, with the Ethiopian National Defence Force claiming that 708 Tigrayan fighters were killed and 480 wounded in two days of fighting. However, these figures could not be independently confirmed.
The renewed conflict in Tigray has significant implications for regional and global stability. A second collapse of the Pretoria agreement would be read across the continent as evidence that internationally brokered peace deals in Africa remain only as durable as the political will propping them up. The situation in Tigray remains fluid and uncertain, with concerns about the humanitarian situation and the potential for further escalation.
Key points
- The conflict in Tigray has resulted in a significant escalation, with the federal military claiming to have inflicted heavy losses on Tigrayan forces.
- A communications blackout has been imposed across Tigray, raising concerns about the humanitarian situation in the region.
- The conflict has significant implications for regional and global stability, with concerns about the durability of internationally brokered peace deals in Africa.
