Ethiopia, with a population of 140 million, is the second most populous country in Africa and a major political and diplomatic center. As the world's largest landlocked country, it faces significant challenges in accessing the global economy. The country's international commerce largely relies on the territory and infrastructure of neighboring Djibouti, creating a structural vulnerability. This dependence on a single external corridor can lead to higher transportation costs, delays, and restricted export opportunities.
International law recognizes the right of landlocked states to access the sea and freedom of transit. Article 125 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea protects the sovereignty and legitimate interests of transit states while ensuring landlocked states' access to the sea. Ethiopia's situation is further complicated by its history; it did not become landlocked due to natural geographical circumstances but as a result of 20th-century territorial transformations, including the separation of Eritrea.
Ethiopia's relationship with Djibouti is one of mutual interdependence, with Djibouti providing an indispensable economic service. However, the concentration of Ethiopian trade through Djibouti creates a new pattern of dependence. The United Nations has identified Ethiopia's loss of direct access to the sea and the redirection of its trade through Djibouti as an illustration of the vulnerabilities faced by landlocked countries.
To address this issue, Ethiopia is seeking secure, permanent, and diversified access to the sea commensurate with its size, geography, economic needs, and historical position in the Horn of Africa. The country does not need to possess a piece of another country to have meaningful access to the sea; instead, it could pursue long-term commercial leases, port concessions, or jointly developed economic zones.
Ethiopian diplomacy must draw a distinction between access and annexation, ensuring that its search for maritime access does not become a justification for coercion, military occupation, or interference in the internal affairs of neighboring states. A negotiated maritime settlement could provide a durable solution, with Ethiopia gaining reliable access and its neighbors gaining economic benefits, security guarantees, and respect for their sovereignty.
A potential solution could involve a Red Sea arrangement where Ethiopian investment helps develop a coastal port, with the coastal state retaining sovereignty and Ethiopia receiving long-term commercial access. Neighboring countries could gain transit revenues and infrastructure, with railways connecting the port to the Ethiopian hinterland. This arrangement would become embedded in regional institutions, creating a corridor of interdependence.
Ethiopia's economic future is increasingly tied to the maritime economy, with modern development requiring access to shipping, energy, technology, markets, and global production. A secure and permanent access to the sea would be a significant step towards ensuring the country's economic growth and development, while also promoting regional peace and stability.
Key points
- Ethiopia seeks secure and permanent access to the sea commensurate with its size and economic needs.
- The country's landlocked condition is a result of 20th-century territorial transformations.
- A negotiated maritime settlement could provide a durable solution, ensuring Ethiopia's access to the sea while respecting the sovereignty of its neighbors.
