Ethiopia's Industry Sector Projected to Overtake Agriculture in Rebased GDP Estimates

The Ethiopian government has released preliminary estimates that put nominal gross domestic product at approximately 31.9 trillion birr. According to the estimates, industry's contribution stands at 31.78 per cent of GDP, narrowly ahead of agriculture's 31.35 per cent. Services remain the largest sector, accounting for 33.85 per cent. The projections follow a national accounts rebasing exercise involving government officials, the Ethiopian Statistics Service, and technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund.

The rebasing exercise aimed to capture activities that had previously been underrepresented, including parts of the informal economy, emerging services, telecommunications, transport, and mining. The revised framework uses the 2008 System of National Accounts and an updated industrial classification to provide a more comprehensive picture of economic activity. The exercise incorporated information from economic censuses, household surveys, establishment data, administrative records, and state-owned enterprises.

The revised accounts put nominal GDP for 2017 EFY at 24.031 trillion birr, equivalent to approximately US$201.42 billion, compared with the previous estimate of 15.094 trillion birr. The 59.21 per cent upward revision reflects changes in statistical coverage, classification, and measurement. Industry recorded the largest upward revision among the three broad sectors, with measured value added increasing by 73.2 per cent compared with the previous estimate.

Mining and quarrying recorded a particularly large adjustment, with measured value added increasing by 245.08 per cent to 1.38 trillion birr. Manufacturing was revised upward by 160.56 per cent to 1.65 trillion birr, while electricity and water increased by 495.35 per cent to 613.58 billion birr. Construction remained a substantial component of industry, generating 3.61 trillion birr in value added.

Despite industry's projected advance, agriculture continues to account for nearly one-third of measured output. The revised 2017 EFY accounts put crop production at 5.07 trillion birr in value added, an upward revision of 48.65 per cent. Animal production contributed 1.79 trillion birr, up 49.44 per cent from the previous estimate. Forestry, fishing, and aquaculture together reached 719.25 billion birr, reflecting an upward revision of 111.04 per cent.

On the expenditure side, gross capital formation reached 8.49 trillion birr in 2017 EFY, equivalent to 35.3 per cent of GDP. Private final consumption stood at 15.47 trillion birr, or 64.4 per cent of GDP, while government final consumption amounted to 1.14 trillion birr, or 4.7 per cent. Gross domestic savings were estimated at 7.42 trillion birr, equivalent to 30.9 per cent of GDP.

The updated accounts are intended to strengthen the statistical basis for economic planning, policy formulation, and investment decisions. The rebasing exercise began in January 2026 and was completed at the end of September. According to the report, real economic growth is projected to be 7.7 per cent. Nominal GDP reflects both changes in production and prices, while real growth measures changes in the volume of goods and services produced.

Key points

• Industry's contribution to GDP is projected to be 31.78 per cent, overtaking agriculture's 31.35 per cent.
• The rebased GDP estimates show a 59.21 per cent upward revision from the previous estimate.
• Real economic growth is projected to be 7.7 per cent.