Ethiopia's federal military has stated that it is handling rising tensions in the country's north with restraint, as concerns grow that Ethiopia may be heading towards another civil war. Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula said the army is responding to provocations from the Tigray front with "wisdom and restraint". The tensions have been escalating, with Eritrea denying accusations of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia.
The conflict has spread from Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions after seven armed groups announced an alliance, committed to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. In Afar, battles have taken place around Abala, where the military has been trying to prevent rebels from seizing control. The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, the alliance of armed groups, is an extension of a longstanding pattern of hostile alliances.
Eritrea has denied accusations of supporting armed groups, wary that landlocked Ethiopia may be seeking to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea. The Eritrean government has not provided further comments on the situation. Meanwhile, in North Wollo, a zone of Amhara bordering Tigray, the army reported killing 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounding 260 in a counter-offensive.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has reported that the federal government has launched a "full-scale offensive" involving infantry, mechanised units, and drones. Abdisalam Balema, a TPLF central committee member, stated that the situation has become a "full war". Fighting has continued around Sama, Soqota, and Raya Alamata, with government forces reportedly closing in on the town of Alamata.
The army command has stated that it prefers a strategy of "strategic calm" over a large-scale military confrontation, arguing that the Tigray front's popular support is dwindling and its leadership divided. Internet access was reportedly cut across northern Ethiopia, a day after the UN expressed alarm at reports of drones being used against civilians.
The renewed fighting has put the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, under severe strain. The agreement was hailed as a major breakthrough, but its implementation has been challenging. The situation has raised fears of a wider regional conflict that could draw in armed groups from across Ethiopia.
Experts have attributed the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement to the federal government's actions, citing restrictions imposed on Tigray and the failure to set up an interim administration. Alemayehu Weldemariam, a professor of law at Indiana University, stated that the federal government bears much of the blame for the collapse of the agreement. The situation remains volatile, with Ethiopia's president seeking to portray the country as a force for regional stability.
Key points
- The Ethiopian federal military is handling rising tensions in the north with restraint, amid fears of another civil war.
- The conflict has spread from Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, with seven armed groups announcing an alliance committed to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
- Experts attribute the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement to the federal government's actions, including restrictions imposed on Tigray and the failure to set up an interim administration.
