Ethiopia has descended into a crisis that could have far-reaching consequences beyond its borders. The resumption of fighting in Tigray, the convergence of several armed groups opposed to the federal government, and the deterioration of relations with Eritrea have sparked concerns about a new hybrid conflict. This crisis is not solely an internal issue, but rather a complex situation influenced by regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan, rivalries over the Nile, and competition for access to the Red Sea.
The November 2022 Pretoria agreement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) was meant to end two years of devastating war and pave the way for disarmament, reconstruction, and the restoration of federal authority. However, the agreement only suspended hostilities, failing to address the underlying causes of the conflict. Questions of power sharing, disarmament, and the status of contested territories remain unresolved, and the fate of Western Tigray, particularly the Welkait zone, continues to fuel resentment.
The crisis is also linked to the evolution of Ethiopia's political system since Abiy Ahmed's appointment as prime minister in 2018. His government has sought to strengthen central authority and challenge the political balances inherited from the previous regime. However, this has been met with resistance from the TPLF, which dominated national politics for nearly three decades and has never accepted its loss of influence. The June 2023 legislative elections, which gave Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party an absolute majority, have not brought about national consensus.
The resumption of hostilities in September 2023 marks a turning point, with the TPLF announcing an alliance with other armed groups, including the Amhara nationalist movement Fano. This coalition aims to overthrow Abiy Ahmed's government, and the subsequent clashes demonstrate a tactical convergence between movements from different regional contexts. The threat is no longer limited to a face-off between federal forces and Tigréan fighters, as multiple fronts may now mobilize the government's military resources simultaneously.
The regional dimension of the crisis is also a concern, particularly in the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The two countries have a history of conflict, and their rapprochement in 2018, which earned Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, has not endured. Recent developments have highlighted the risk of an extension of the conflict beyond borders, with Addis Ababa accusing Eritrea of a military incursion on its territory on October 9.
The war in Sudan is another factor destabilizing the region, with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023 profoundly disrupting political balances. The humanitarian needs in Ethiopia remain considerable, and the country's instability could have far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
The international community is watching the situation closely, with concerns about the potential for a wider regional conflict. The crisis has the potential to affect not only the security of the African continent but also global trade and strategic balances.
Key points
- The conflict in Ethiopia has the potential to become a wider regional war.
- The crisis is influenced by regional dynamics, including the war in Sudan and rivalries over the Nile.
- The humanitarian needs in Ethiopia remain considerable.
