Ethiopian federal forces have taken full control of the Tigray regional capital, Mekelle, with troops patrolling the city and manning key institutions. This development comes as regional rivals Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea gather in Cairo to discuss the escalating conflict and potential threats of a broader war. According to a local journalist, communications have been restored in Mekelle for the first time in over a week.
The conflict began when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks against federal forces on September 23, sparking fears of a return to the devastating civil war of 2020-2022. The TPLF had long been the dominant force in Tigray but was ousted from power in 2018 with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The group's leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, has implied that they would continue guerrilla-style attacks.
The mini-summit in Alamein, Egypt, brings together Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki, Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Eritrea, which shares a long border with Tigray state, is directly involved in the conflict and accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, which Eritrea denies. A counter-offensive by Ethiopian forces has seen them push deep into rebel-held territory, entering Mekelle on Saturday without a fight. TPLF leaders and troops abandoned the city, and businesses and shops remain closed, with owners fearing looting and vandalism.
The conflict has raised concerns about a potential wider war, with analysts saying Eritrea has backed the rebels in Ethiopia to keep the conflict away from its border. The TPLF ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 but was marginalized with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The tensions led to a civil war from 2020 to 2022 that left over 600,000 dead, according to the African Union.
The Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, helped keep some kind of peace until last year. However, the current conflict has sparked fears of a return to civil war. A commander with a pro-government militia stated that they have taken control of Mekelle and are marching forward.
The situation on the ground remains uncertain, with residents reporting a lack of police and having to organize their own security. The conflict has also had humanitarian implications, with thousands of migrants braving the Eastern Route, which passes through Djibouti, Yemen, and other Horn of Africa countries.
Key points
- Ethiopian federal forces have seized control of Tigray capital Mekelle.
- Regional rivals meet in Egypt to discuss escalating conflict.
- Conflict raises concerns about potential wider war.
