Ethiopian federal forces have taken control of the Tigray rebels' regional capital, Mekelle, with troops patrolling the city and manning key institutions. This development comes as Ethiopia's regional rivals gather in Egypt to discuss the risk of a wider war. The conflict began on September 23, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks against federal forces, sparking fears of a return to the devastating civil war of 2020-2022.
The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea, all of whom have difficult relations with Ethiopia, are set to meet in the Egyptian city of Alamein to discuss the conflict. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, with the added support of Sudan and Egypt, which all three countries deny. The meeting on the sidelines of an African Business Forum aims to address the growing tensions in the region.
A counter-offensive by Ethiopian forces has seen them push deep into rebel-held territory, entering Mekelle on Saturday without a fight, as TPLF leaders and troops abandoned the city. Federal troops were patrolling Mekelle and manning key institutions on Sunday, with communications restored for the first time in more than a week. A local journalist reported that businesses and shops remained closed, with owners moving stock to safer locations ahead of time, fearing looting and vandalism.
The TPLF has long been the dominant force in Tigray, ousting a government-appointed administration this year. The rebels' leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, implied that the group would continue guerrilla-style attacks as they did when Mekelle fell to government forces in 2020 during the last war. Their insurgent campaign ultimately led to the TPLF retaking the city the following year.
Eritrea, which shares a long border with Tigray state, is most directly involved in the conflict. It accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. Analysts say it has backed the rebels in Ethiopia in a bid to keep the conflict away from its border. The tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have contributed to the complexity of the conflict.
The TPLF ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when it was marginalised with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who hails from the Oromia region. The tensions led to a civil war from 2020 to 2022 that left more than 600,000 dead, according to the African Union, making it one of the deadliest in the world in recent times. The Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, was never fully implemented but still helped keep some kind of peace until last year.
The situation on the ground remains uncertain, with residents reporting a lack of police and organised security. One resident told AFP that they had to organise themselves and take care of security. The conflict has resulted in significant displacement and humanitarian concerns, with the international community closely monitoring the situation.
Key points
- Ethiopian federal forces control Tigray capital Mekelle
- Regional rivals meet in Egypt to discuss conflict
- TPLF leader implies continued guerrilla-style attacks
