Ethiopia and Eritrea have accused each other of starting a war of aggression as an internal Ethiopian conflict threatens to escalate into a regional war. The two countries have severed diplomatic relations, and Eritrean troops have been seen in northern Tigray, with Ethiopia launching drone strikes against their forces. A foreign security source estimates that 5,000 to 8,000 Eritrean soldiers are present in Tigray.
The conflict began when Ethiopia accused Eritrea of backing rebels in its northern Tigray state, who launched attacks against federal forces last month. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos wrote that Eritrea's conduct was "a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia's inherent right to self-defence". Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, responded that it was facing "an unprovoked war of aggression" from Ethiopia.
The rebels are retreating to Sheraro, a town near the Eritrean border, according to a Tigrayan official from a TPLF dissident faction. Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist, told AFP that the TPLF was "withering", with low morale and frustration with their leaders. Many are defecting and going back to their villages, he said. Tronvoll also stated that he did not believe Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed would stop at the border.
Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved with the rise to power of Abiy in 2018, and Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia during the latter's 2020-2022 civil war against the TPLF. However, relations deteriorated after the war, with Eritrea angry over the way it was concluded and fearing an Ethiopian invasion.
Landlocked Ethiopia has repeatedly insisted that it has a right to direct sea access, which Eritrea interprets as a threat to invade and seize its port at Assab. The Eritrean information minister said that Ethiopia's intentions must be seen with previous intentions to wage a war of invasion against Eritrea. Authorities in both countries have not responded to AFP requests for comment.
The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering, with looters operating in the city of Shire and four people killed and 11 injured in an exchange of gunfire related to the looting. Pro-government forces were yet to enter the city. Eritrean forces were seen in Adigrat in recent days before being targeted by Ethiopian drone strikes, according to a conflict monitor and witnesses.
Key points
- Ethiopia and Eritrea have accused each other of aggression as conflict escalates
- The Ethiopian army has pushed back the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and seized their capital city, Mekelle
- The conflict has resulted in significant human suffering and displacement in the region
