The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is urging South Africans, farmers, and disaster management authorities to prepare early for the 2026/27 summer as a rapidly intensifying El Niño raises the risk of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures. Forecasts indicate the current El Niño could become exceptionally strong by late 2026 or early 2027. SAWS emphasizes the importance of preparedness rather than waiting for possible impacts to materialize.
A media conference was held, bringing together climate scientists, disaster management officials, and experts from the agriculture and health sectors to discuss how South Africa should plan for the months ahead. The National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) stressed that preparations should begin before communities experience the effects of adverse weather. The NDMC's approach is centered on preparedness before impacts materialize.
University of Pretoria climatologist Prof Willem Landman confirmed that South Africa is already experiencing an El Niño event, with the 2026/27 event developing unusually early and rapidly. The event is now a mature coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon and is rapidly intensifying. Forecasts indicate a very strong El Niño could peak in late 2026 or early 2027.
However, authorities warned against treating the strength of El Niño as a direct prediction of drought. The magnitude of the El Niño should not be interpreted as a direct indication of the magnitude or spatial distribution of impacts over southern Africa. SAWS emphasized that local risk assessments should determine decisions and responses.
The Agricultural Research Council advised that El Niño is generally associated with reduced grazing and lower summer grain yields, although impacts differ from one event to another. Current agricultural conditions ahead of the 2026/27 summer are more favourable than those before the 2015/16 summer, but experts warned that this could change as the season progresses. A conservative management strategy is advised during El Niño summers.
The health sector is preparing for the possibility of extreme heat, with particular concern for vulnerable communities, young children, elderly people, and people living with chronic illnesses. Health authorities are using Heat Health Action Plans focusing on warning systems, preparedness, vulnerable groups, and monitoring. SAWS forecasts drier conditions towards mid-summer, with increasing probabilities of below-normal rainfall and very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures.
SAWS senior manager for Disaster Risk Reduction Rudzani Malala stressed that El Niño itself should not be regarded as a disaster. The El Niño in itself is not a disaster, but the way in which people react and plan for it should be in a responsible and proactive manner. Cooperation across government and society will be essential, with communities needing clear warnings and practical information about protective measures.
Key points
- SAWS urges early planning for 2026/27 summer due to rapidly intensifying El Niño
- El Niño event is developing unusually early and rapidly, with forecasts indicating a very strong peak in late 2026 or early 2027
- Authorities emphasize preparedness and cooperation across government and society to mitigate impacts of El Niño
