Kenya is bracing for the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service forecasting above-average rainfall in several parts of the country as El Niño conditions develop. The forecast has raised concerns about the risk of floods, landslides, and damage to infrastructure. The government has activated multi-agency measures to minimise the impact of the rains, and development partners and humanitarian agencies have been brought on board to support anticipatory action and response in disaster-prone areas.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has emphasised that Nairobi requires special attention due to its urban setting and concentration of people and infrastructure in areas exposed to flooding. Nairobi's exposure is particularly pronounced due to its dense built environment, extensive paved surfaces, and drainage constraints. Rapid construction has reduced areas where rainwater can naturally infiltrate, while homes and developments in low-lying areas and riparian corridors remain vulnerable when drainage systems are overwhelmed.
A recent experience that highlighted Nairobi's vulnerability was the torrential overnight rains on March 6, which triggered widespread flooding across the city. The Nairobi River and its tributaries swelled, major roads became impassable, and vehicles were swept away in several parts of the city. By March 13, Nairobi had recorded 33 deaths from the floods, the highest number reported in the country at the time.
The county government has rolled out a Sh2.4 billion flood-mitigation programme that includes drainage works, river desilting, clearance of blocked waterways, and preparations for emergency response. The programme targets 19 flood-prone roads, while authorities have mapped areas vulnerable to flooding and are working with national agencies and humanitarian organisations. However, a spot check in parts of the city suggests that the rains could arrive before some of the preparedness measures are fully completed.
In some areas, debris removed from choked drains and water channels had yet to be collected, leaving piles of waste next to the waterways. A sudden downpour lasting several hours could wash the debris back into the drainage system, potentially recreating the blockages authorities are trying to eliminate. This raises concerns about whether the city's emergency response capacity would be sufficient if several parts of Nairobi were hit simultaneously.
The county has previously deployed a fleet that includes trucks and excavators for emergency operations. Nairobi's 2023 El Niño preparedness plan included 50 trucks and 10 excavators alongside other emergency equipment. For the current season, the immediate test will be whether preventive work keeps pace with the approaching rains. Clearing waste from drainage channels, removing debris from roads and waterways, and completing ongoing drainage works before the onset of heavier rainfall could determine how effectively the city absorbs the shock.
The latest forecast indicates that rainfall is expected in several parts of the country in the coming days, with wetter conditions projected to intensify towards October and continue into November. For Nairobi, the question is whether those measures will be fully operational before the water starts rising. The county government's preparedness measures are crucial in mitigating the impact of the El Niño rains.
Key points
- The Kenyan government has activated multi-agency measures to minimise the impact of the El Niño rains.
- Nairobi's flood-mitigation programme includes drainage works, river desilting, and clearance of blocked waterways.
- The county government has deployed a fleet of trucks and excavators for emergency operations.
