The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that El Niño is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak in December. According to the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to hit record levels between October and December 2026. This strengthening climate event is expected to influence weather patterns across the globe, with possible effects on economies, ecosystems, and communities.
The WMO forecasts a near-100% likelihood that the El Niño event will continue through February 2027. The organisation said the event could potentially become one of the strongest since at least 1950. The forecast is based on a consensus from 13 national and international centres using real-time exchanges of ocean buoy, satellite, and radiosonde data coordinated by the WMO. The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, has already risen sharply.
The anomaly increased from an average of 1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to 2.5°C above normal in August. For October to December, the seasonal average is forecast to reach about 3.7°C above normal, with the peak expected around December. According to the WMO, this would be the highest level since observations began and would exceed the previous record of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the strength of the current event was linked to the amount of heat stored in the ocean. She explained that El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet but releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface. The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it, and there is simply more heat available to release.
The developing El Niño is expected to contribute to above-average temperatures across large parts of the world during the October-December period. The WMO said the forecast does not mean every location will experience above-average temperatures every day. Instead, it signals a greater likelihood of seasonal heat extremes and related impacts. The organisation also expects significant changes in rainfall patterns.
In Kenya, the Kenya Meteorological Service has warned of wetter-than-normal conditions in several parts of the country. Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rains had started in parts of 24 counties, including the Coast, western Kenya, and the Rift Valley, and would continue spreading to other areas. He urged farmers to rely on detailed forecasts issued by county meteorological officials because the onset and intensity of the rains would vary across regions.
The WMO stressed that the seasonal projections indicate areas where wetter or drier conditions are more likely and should not replace national or local weather forecasts. The organisation and its members are working to reduce the potential impacts of the El Niño event across different sectors. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and regional climate outlook forums are providing regular updates to decision-makers, while information is also being shared across the United Nations system and with humanitarian partners.
Key points
- El Niño is expected to peak in December and continue through February 2027 with a near-100% likelihood.
