Egyptian strategist and former Deputy Director of the National Defense College, Adel El-Omda, has warned that Iran's threats to expand its pressure to the airspace are a significant strategic risk to regional airports. El-Omda made these comments in response to a statement by Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor, Mohammad Mokhber, who threatened that if Iranian flights are grounded, no one in the region will be able to fly. This development comes amid US sanctions on Iranian airlines and the cancellation of several Iranian flights to neighboring countries.
El-Omda noted that Iran's threats to target airports of countries that cooperate with the US sanctions on Iranian airlines could render them unusable. He emphasized that this represents a new phase in Iran's strategy, shifting from pressure on maritime navigation and energy to potential expansion into the airspace and airports. However, El-Omda cautioned that it is essential to distinguish between Iran's political threats and its actual capabilities to disrupt regional air traffic on a large scale.
According to El-Omda, Iran's threats can be understood on three levels. The first level involves pressure on maritime navigation, which could expand to pressure on air navigation if Iran were to target airports or aviation facilities in neighboring countries. This would make the airspace a part of Iran's strategic tools, alongside the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The second level involves targeting transportation networks, not just aircraft, which could lead to widespread flight cancellations and rerouting of air traffic.
El-Omda also highlighted a third level, where the impact of Iran's actions would extend beyond the region, affecting the global air network. The Middle East is a critical hub for flights between Asia, Europe, and Africa, and disruptions to air traffic could lead to increased flight times, costs, and pressure on alternative airports. Reports indicate that airlines are already rerouting some flights away from high-risk areas.
El-Omda outlined four levels of risk associated with Iran's threats, ranging from the political to the military. The political level involves increasing the cost of cooperation with US sanctions, while the economic level involves rising insurance and fuel costs, flight delays, and cancellations. The security and military level would be triggered if Iran were to launch actual attacks on airports or aircraft, leading to a significant escalation of tensions.
The crisis has already begun to affect Iranian air travel, with flights to some Gulf countries canceled and an Iranian flight forced to change course after being denied permission to cross Turkmenistan's airspace. El-Omda emphasized that the critical strategic question is whether Iran's actions could lead to a war of navigation with the US.
El-Omda concluded that if the crisis persists, it could lead to a synchronized pattern of pressure on three fronts: sea, air, and energy, and trade. This would mean that the conflict would no longer be limited to military strikes but would also involve attempts to influence regional freedom of movement, including shipping, air traffic, ports, airports, and trade routes.
Key points
- Iran's threats to expand pressure to the airspace pose a significant strategic risk to regional airports
- The crisis has already begun to affect Iranian air travel, with flights to some Gulf countries canceled
- The conflict could lead to a synchronized pattern of pressure on three fronts: sea, air, and energy, and trade.
