Dr. Mohamed Bakry, a professor of commercial, maritime, and air law at Benha University's Faculty of Law, has discussed the implications of the crisis in the Middle East on the global economy, particularly the tensions in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and their impact on maritime transport, energy security, and international trade. He highlighted that maritime transport is the lifeblood of the world, being the cheapest mode of transportation for goods, and that it controls global trade. The Bab al-Mandab Strait is a critical point in global geopolitics and strategy, with a significant portion of global trade and oil supplies passing through it.
According to Dr. Bakry, the tensions in Bab al-Mandab have significantly affected global trade, leading to increased costs for shipping goods and impacting the transportation of oil from the Gulf to European countries. The route around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope has become a more common choice, resulting in longer travel times and higher costs. As a result, shipping costs have increased, and insurance premiums have risen due to increased risks. Dr. Bakry noted that 9.3 million barrels of oil per day used to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, but this number dropped to 3 million barrels in 2024 and recently fell to just 400,000 barrels per day.
The tensions in Bab al-Mandab have also had a ripple effect on European industries, with some countries relocating their factories to other nations. Additionally, countries have begun stockpiling larger quantities of essential goods, such as wheat, due to fears of supply chain disruptions. Dr. Bakry emphasized that the impact of these tensions on global trade and the economy will be significant, with increased costs and potential shortages of critical goods. He also noted that the international community is concerned about the security of maritime transport and the potential for conflicts and disputes.
Dr. Bakry highlighted that international law guarantees the freedom of navigation in international waterways and protects the right of commercial vessels to pass through safely. However, threats to maritime safety and attacks on ships raise concerns about international law and trade disputes. He also pointed out that the tensions in Bab al-Mandab have affected the revenue of the Suez Canal, which is a critical source of income for Egypt.
The Egyptian government has taken proactive measures to mitigate the impact of these tensions on the country's economy. The government has invested in strategic stockpiles of essential goods and has expanded its storage capacity for grains, such as wheat. These efforts aim to ensure food security and maintain a stable supply of critical goods. Dr. Bakry praised the government's forward-thinking approach in preparing for potential crises and challenges.
The impact of the tensions in Bab al-Mandab on global trade and the economy will continue to be felt in the coming months. As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential for the international community to work together to address the root causes of these tensions and find solutions to mitigate their impact. Dr. Bakry emphasized that cooperation and diplomacy are crucial in resolving these issues and ensuring the stability of global trade.
In conclusion, the tensions in Bab al-Mandab have significant implications for global trade and the economy. The international community must work together to address these challenges and find solutions to mitigate their impact. Egypt, with its strategic location and proactive approach, is well-positioned to navigate these challenges and maintain its role as a critical player in global trade.
Key points
- The tensions in Bab al-Mandab have led to increased costs for shipping goods and impacted the transportation of oil from the Gulf to European countries.
- The Egyptian government has taken proactive measures to mitigate the impact of these tensions on the country's economy, including investing in strategic stockpiles of essential goods.
- The international community must work together to address the root causes of these tensions and find solutions to mitigate their impact on global trade and the economy.
