On October 28, 2026, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that his country had received 12 Su-35 fighter jets and would take delivery of four batteries of the S-400 air defence system from Russia. The deal, which was expedited by a year, is seen as a significant boost to Ethiopia's military capabilities. According to Rosoboronexport, Russia's state arms exporter, the initial delivery consisted of only two aircraft. The financial value of the agreement and the full delivery schedule for the remaining fighters have not been publicly disclosed.
The arms deal between Ethiopia and Russia did not occur in a geopolitical vacuum. Ethiopia is currently grappling with renewed fighting in Tigray, an insurgency in Amhara, and escalating tensions with Eritrea. Modernizing its air force and air defence capabilities is a logical move from Addis Ababa's perspective. For Russia, the agreement offers both financial returns and an opportunity to expand its strategic influence in the Horn of Africa. This is particularly significant as Moscow seeks to preserve its share of African arms markets despite mounting Western sanctions.
Egypt is closely watching the developments, given its own experience with a similar arms deal with Russia. In 2018, Cairo signed an agreement to purchase Russian Su-35 fighter jets in a deal estimated at approximately $2 billion and involving more than 20 aircraft. However, the deal encountered explicit warnings from Washington under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The United States cautioned that proceeding with the purchase could expose Egypt to sanctions that might undermine its extensive military cooperation with Washington.
The discrepancy between Egypt's and Ethiopia's experiences with Russian arms deals raises questions about why Egypt faced intense American pressure, while Ethiopia has not. The answer lies in the discretion granted to the US administration under CAATSA. Egypt's military establishment has historically relied heavily on American-made systems, making sanctions a more significant concern. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has a less deeply integrated military relationship with the United States and is less dependent on American military equipment.
From a military standpoint, the Su-35 fighters and S-400 system will introduce additional operational capabilities into the Ethiopian Air Force. However, the value of any weapons system cannot be measured by its technical specifications alone. Operational readiness, pilot and personnel training, maintenance infrastructure, and integration with existing military platforms are equally critical factors. There is currently insufficient evidence to establish that the agreement is specifically directed against Egypt or that it forms part of a broader strategy to exert pressure on Cairo over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
In response to concerns about Egyptian national security, the director of the Russian Federal News Network (RFN) stated that Ethiopia's acquisition of these weapons did not mean they were intended to target Egypt. He emphasized that possessing advanced military equipment was fundamentally different from having the actual operational capacity to deploy it effectively. The statement was seen as an attempt to reassure Egyptian opinion and preserve Moscow's bilateral relationship with Cairo.
The arms deal between Ethiopia and Russia has significant implications for the regional balance of power. Egypt's national security is closely intertwined with the developments in Ethiopia, and the country will be watching closely as the situation unfolds. Russia's ability to maintain military partnerships with both Cairo and Addis Ababa simultaneously reflects the fundamental nature of international relations, which are governed by evolving national interests rather than a permanent alignment of priorities.
Key points
- Ethiopia's acquisition of Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defence systems from Russia has raised concerns in Egypt about its national security.
- The discrepancy between Egypt's and Ethiopia's experiences with Russian arms deals raises questions about why Egypt faced intense American pressure, while Ethiopia has not.
- The arms deal between Ethiopia and Russia has significant implications for the regional balance of power and Egypt's national security.
