The Egyptian government has set a target to reduce the total fertility rate to 2.1 children per woman by the end of 2027. According to Dr. Abla Al-Alfi, Deputy Minister of Health, the current rate has declined to 2.3 children per woman, compared to 2.8 children per woman in the previous census. This decline has prompted the government to accelerate its goals under the National Population and Development Strategy.
Dr. Al-Alfi stated that the current rate implies that every 10 women give birth to approximately 23 children, down from 28 children per 10 women in 2021. This represents an 18.2% decrease in the fertility rate compared to 2021. The Deputy Minister of Health expressed optimism that the target of 2.1 children per woman can be achieved by the end of 2027 or 2028.
A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement rate, which ensures a stable population and maintains natural growth rates. Dr. Al-Alfi noted that there are significant disparities in fertility rates across different governorates. Urban governorates, such as Cairo, Alexandria, and Port Said, have recorded rates below the replacement level, averaging 1.7 children per woman.
In contrast, rural governorates in Upper Egypt and border governorates have experienced slower declines in fertility rates. Dr. Al-Alfi attributed this to the predominantly Bedouin and tribal nature of these areas, where there is a greater desire for larger families. For example, the fertility rate in Matruh has decreased from 5.7 children per woman in 2021 to 3.4 children per woman currently.
The decline in fertility rates in Matruh and other governorates is attributed to the government's efforts to provide family planning resources. Dr. Al-Alfi emphasized that the Ministry of Health is committed to continuing these efforts to achieve the target fertility rate. The National Population and Development Strategy aims to address population growth and promote sustainable development.
The government has allocated significant investments to the healthcare sector, including 108 billion Egyptian pounds in the 2026/2027 plan. This investment aims to improve healthcare services, including family planning and reproductive health. The Ministry of Health has also launched initiatives to raise awareness about the importance of family planning and provide access to contraceptives.
As Egypt continues to work towards its target fertility rate, the government is likely to face challenges in governorates with slower declines in fertility rates. However, with continued efforts to provide family planning resources and promote awareness, Egypt may achieve its goal of a 2.1 children per woman fertility rate by 2027.
Key points
- Egypt targets a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman by 2027.
- The current fertility rate stands at 2.3 children per woman, down from 2.8 children per woman in 2021.
- Urban governorates have recorded fertility rates below the replacement level, averaging 1.7 children per woman.
