In a recent opinion piece, Egyptian writer Salah Diab expressed his views on the US-Iran conflict, suggesting that the war is not about Iran's nuclear program, but rather about oil. According to Diab, the US, under President Trump, aimed to become the world's leading oil producer and exporter, and to weaken its competitors, particularly in the Gulf region. This perspective sheds light on the complex dynamics at play in the conflict.
Prior to the conflict with Iran, the US had already taken control of Venezuela's oil, and Gulf oil posed a significant challenge to American oil companies. Diab argues that the US needed to "neutralize" this competition, which led to the creation of tensions in the Gulf, resulting in reduced oil production in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, and the halt of Iranian oil exports. This strategy, according to Diab, was designed to maintain US dominance in the global oil market.
For years, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest oil producer and exporter. However, the emergence of US shale oil changed the landscape, with the US producing 13.6 million barrels per day and exporting over 5 million barrels daily. Nevertheless, the high production costs of US shale oil, estimated at $60 per barrel, posed a significant challenge, compared to the $5 per barrel production costs in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
The US oil companies lobbied for higher prices and pressured other countries to reduce production. In response, Saudi Arabia and the OPEC+ group, including Russia, agreed to a gradual increase in production, by 188,000 barrels per day. This move was seen as a rational decision to lower prices and prevent US companies from making losses. However, Diab suggests that this strategy was misguided, as it did not anticipate the future consequences.
The US oil producers turned to President Trump for support, meeting with him in Miami to express their concerns about OPEC's alleged attempts to harm them. Trump, already inclined to support Israel, saw an opportunity to promote US interests and maintain American leadership in oil production. The subsequent conflict with Iran and tensions in the Gulf led to a significant increase in oil prices, exceeding $100 per barrel.
According to Diab, Trump's decision not to intervene in protecting Saudi Arabia from the Houthi rebels in Yemen is not surprising, given that his presidency was not heavily dependent on the outcome of the upcoming Congressional elections. The conflict, therefore, can be seen as a manifestation of an economic war between oil producers, with the US seeking to protect its interests and maintain global leadership.
In conclusion, the US-Iran conflict can be viewed as an economic war between oil producers, with the US shale oil industry at its core. The dynamics of this conflict are complex, involving multiple players and interests. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping the motivations behind the conflict and its potential implications for the global oil market.
Key points
- The US-Iran conflict may be seen as an economic war between oil producers, with the US seeking to protect its shale oil industry and maintain global leadership.
