The Edo APC's reported ambition to secure 2.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election has sparked debate about its feasibility. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 131,165 new voters registered in Edo between August 2025 and July 2026, which could potentially provide fresh electoral ammunition for every political party. However, when placed against the scale of the APC's reported target, these new registration figures also raise uncomfortable questions about the achievability of the goal.
The INEC had previously put Edo's voter register at 2,629,022, following an earlier registration exercise, representing an increase from the 2,501,081 registered voters recorded for the 2023 general election. If the APC is indeed looking towards 2.5 million presidential votes from Edo in 2027, the question arises: "Where will those votes come from?" The target would require an extraordinary level of voter mobilization, considering that it would amount to almost the entire current registered voter population of the state.
The experience of the 2023 presidential election serves as a reality check for the Edo APC's 2.5 million-vote target. In that election, Edo had 2,501,081 registered voters, but only 603,894 were accredited, with the total votes cast standing at 600,395, and valid votes at 581,266. Peter Obi of the Labour Party won the state with 331,163 votes, while Tinubu polled 144,471. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party scored 89,585, meaning Tinubu's 2023 Edo tally was less than 150,000 votes.
Achieving the 2.5 million-vote target would require an increase of roughly 17 times Tinubu's 2023 vote count. This is not ordinary electoral growth; it would be an electoral revolution. Although the APC now controls the Edo State Government House following Governor Monday Okpebholo's victory in the 2024 governorship election, securing 291,667 votes against Asue Ighodalo's 247,274, the party's governorship candidate won the state with fewer than 300,000 votes in an election where more than two million voters were registered.
The APC may benefit from incumbency at both the federal and state levels, pointing to infrastructure projects, social programs, economic reforms, and other achievements as reasons voters should support the President. However, the party must confront the harder part of electoral mobilization: "conversion." The registration of 131,165 new voters means there is a substantial pool of new and potentially younger voters entering the electoral conversation, but these voters are not automatically APC voters.
The latest Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) figures may give the APC something to work with, but the party must develop a strategic challenge to achieve its 2.5 million-vote target. The APC must determine its value proposition to the Edo voter and provide compelling reasons for voters to support Tinubu. The 2023 presidential result and the 2024 governorship election demonstrate that electoral behavior can shift considerably between elections.
Key points
- The Edo APC's 2.5 million-vote target for the 2027 presidential election is raising questions about its feasibility.
- Achieving the target would require significant voter mobilization and conversion of new and existing voters.
- The APC must develop a strategic challenge and value proposition to achieve its goal.
