Nigeria is approaching a critical moment in its economic history, where statistics are no longer just numbers but warnings of impending social unrest. The rising cost of petrol is significantly impacting the daily lives of millions of citizens, affecting their ability to work, transport food, and run businesses. With the price of petrol having a ripple effect on the entire economy, Nigerians are feeling the pinch of increased transport fares, food prices, and building materials.
A recent article by veteran columnist Lasisi Olagunju illustrates the disturbing trend of rising petrol costs. Between September 10 and September 22, 2026, he spent ₦211,396 on petrol for one vehicle, averaging about ₦17,616 a day. If sustained for 30 days, this would amount to roughly ₦528,490, and approximately ₦6.43 million annually. While not every Nigerian spends this amount on petrol, the more pressing question is the impact on society when the cost of participating in the economy consumes the income generated.
Petrol is not just another commodity in Nigeria; it is the lifeblood of economic activity. Farmers need transportation to move produce, traders must reach markets, and manufacturers depend on energy and logistics. Workers must commute to work, and school buses, ambulances, generators, and commercial vehicles consume fuel. When petrol prices rise dramatically, the entire economy feels the shock, as the increased costs are passed on to consumers.
Nigeria's political history shows that fuel prices can be a trigger for wider mobilisation. In January 2012, the Jonathan administration's attempt to remove petrol subsidies more than doubled the pump price, triggering widespread protests and a nationwide labour strike. The government subsequently partially reversed the increase. This lesson is crucial, as citizens experience economic reforms through household budgets, not fiscal tables.
The reality of economic hardship resurfaced in August 2024, when nationwide demonstrations over economic hardship incorporated demands concerning petrol prices, electricity tariffs, hunger, and the broader cost of living. While economic hardship does not automatically produce social disorder, the risks increase when people believe that work no longer guarantees survival, and that government is unresponsive to suffering.
Accumulated economic grievances can eventually become politicised, leading to social unrest. Nigeria saw this during the 2020 #EndSARS protests, which began as anger over police brutality but broadened into wider grievances about governance, accountability, and living conditions. The warning for every government is straightforward: social unrest does not always remain confined to the initial grievance.
A fuel crisis can aggravate a food crisis, which can intensify a wage crisis. As economic grievances accumulate, citizens may begin to lose trust in the government's ability to address their concerns. It is essential for the government to be responsive to the suffering of its citizens and to take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of economic hardship, lest the situation escalate into widespread social unrest.
Key points
- The rising cost of petrol in Nigeria is affecting daily life and sparking concerns about social unrest.
- The government's responsiveness to citizens' suffering is crucial in preventing economic grievances from becoming politicised.
- Accumulated economic grievances can eventually lead to social unrest if not addressed.
