The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has released its September Regional Economic Prospects report, titled "Running Dry," forecasting a 4.8% growth for Morocco's economy in 2026. This growth is attributed to a significant recovery in agricultural production, following several years of drought that impacted the sector. The EBRD's report highlights that Morocco's economic outlook has improved, positioning it among the stronger-performing economies in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region.
According to the EBRD, the recovery in agricultural production during the first half of 2026 has been a key driver of Morocco's improved growth outlook. The agricultural sector's rebound is crucial for Morocco, as it has faced several years of drought that affected production and rural activity. The EBRD's forecast for 2026 indicates a strong recovery in agriculture, which is expected to support overall economic growth.
Morocco's High Commission for Planning (HCP) reported that agricultural value added increased by 18.4% in the first quarter and estimated a 20.5% expansion in the second quarter of 2026. This growth is attributed to favorable rainfall during the winter season, which supported agricultural production. The HCP also estimated that Morocco's economy grew by an average of 4.7% during the first half of 2026, with services continuing to support growth alongside agriculture.
The EBRD also noted that tourism receipts and remittances from Moroccans living abroad have continued to support Morocco's external balances. These inflows have helped cushion the impact of a wider trade deficit and supported the country's external balances. Additionally, the EBRD highlighted that inflation has remained very low in Morocco, despite higher energy prices across the region.
The EBRD expects Morocco's growth to moderate to 3.9% in 2027, but still projects the country to maintain its relatively strong growth within the SEMED region over the forecast period. The bank's forecast is supported by the recovery in agriculture, as well as continued tourism revenues and remittance inflows. This outlook suggests that Morocco's economy is poised for sustained growth in the coming years.
The improved economic outlook for Morocco is a positive development for the country, which has faced several challenges in recent years. The EBRD's forecast is based on a range of factors, including the recovery in agricultural production, tourism receipts, and remittances from abroad. The bank's report highlights the importance of these factors in supporting Morocco's economic growth.
The EBRD's forecast for Morocco's economy in 2026 is an upward revision from previous projections, reflecting the country's improved economic prospects. The bank's report provides a positive assessment of Morocco's economic outlook, highlighting the country's resilience and potential for growth.
Key points
- The EBRD projects Morocco's economy to grow by 4.8% in 2026, driven by a strong recovery in agricultural output.
- The recovery in agriculture has contributed to a broader improvement in economic activity, with services continuing to support growth.
- Tourism receipts and remittances from Moroccans living abroad have continued to support Morocco's external balances.
