East Africa is heading into a severe food crisis that will not resolve in one season. The region is experiencing rising grain prices, with Kenya's North Rift, which accounts for over 60% of the country's maize production, recording widespread crop failures. Uganda is also conducting emergency food deliveries in Karamoja, where over a million acres of crops have been lost.
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) had flagged the crisis months ago, noting that maize prices were running 20% above average. The World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation have been prepositioning stocks and cash transfers in vulnerable countries. Despite the warning system working as designed, the real question remains whether the response infrastructure can move at the same speed as the warning systems.
The odds of a very strong El Niño forming between October and December are 81%, with conditions likely to persist into 2027. To mitigate the crisis, governments need to invest in strategic grain reserves that release on a forecast trigger, rather than after shortages are visible in markets. Regional trade corridors must also be kept open during shocks to allow surpluses in one region to reach areas of shortage.
Public investment in irrigation and water storage is crucial, treated as core infrastructure spending, on the same footing as roads or power. Financing structures must also be built to anticipate seasonal price shocks, such as the 30% quarter-on-quarter jump in Ugandan bean prices this year. Soil health data must feed directly into land-use and subsidy policy, not sitting in a research report.
Some governments have shown that preparedness can make a difference. Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme, built after recurring droughts in the early 2000s, pairs early warning data with cash and food transfers pre-positioned to reach vulnerable households before a bad season turns into a famine. This approach has consistently outperformed ones that wait for a crisis to be confirmed before mobilizing.
To address the crisis, anticipatory finance must be tied to forecast triggers, so that once the El Niño probability crosses a set threshold, capital for drought-tolerant seed, irrigation, and grain storage releases automatically. This approach already exists in humanitarian response and can be applied to agriculture and enterprise finance. Success must be measured not only in businesses funded but in tonnes of staple food that reached markets before prices spiked.
Key points
- East Africa faces a severe food crisis as El Niño is forecasted to hit the region with an 81% probability.
- Governments must invest in strategic grain reserves, irrigation, and water storage to mitigate the crisis.
- Anticipatory finance must be tied to forecast triggers to release capital for drought-tolerant seed, irrigation, and grain storage.
