Dr. Khadim Niang, a Senegalese expert in political science, has provided insights into the growing influence of the Houthis in the Middle East. With a Ph.D. in political science and a thesis on the geopolitics of resources and security challenges in Africa, Dr. Niang offers a unique perspective on the Houthi's rise to prominence. He notes that the Houthis' geographical location is a significant factor in their growing influence, bordering the Red Sea and situated near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical passage connecting the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal. Dr. Niang emphasizes that an actor with missiles, drones, and naval capabilities in this location gains significant strategic weight, regardless of their economic or military power. The Houthis have developed their capabilities through years of combat experience, resisting a Saudi-led coalition and progressively developing long-range strike capabilities. They also receive support from Iran, although Dr. Niang cautions against reducing them to a mere instrument of Tehran.
The Houthis have made significant strides in recent developments, progressing spectacularly on the western coast of Yemen and securing strategic positions around Bab el-Mandeb, including Mokha and the island of Perim. Dr. Niang highlights the paradox that an actor does not need to be a great power to exert significant influence; controlling or threatening the right territory at the right time is often sufficient. The Houthis' growing influence has raised concerns about the potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, following the Strait of Hormuz.
The impact of a potential blockade on global energy markets could be significant. Dr. Niang explains that the global energy system relies on a few narrow maritime passages, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. A combination of risks in these two areas makes the situation particularly concerning. Saudi Arabia has a solution to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, but this alternative route is also vulnerable to Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
If the passage through Bab el-Mandeb becomes too dangerous, an alternative route would be to circumnavigate Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. Dr. Niang notes that this would result in increased fuel consumption, longer ship journeys, higher insurance premiums, and a global increase in maritime transport costs. The Saudi Arabian government, a major regional power, has struggled to neutralize the Houthi threat, raising questions about the organization's ability to withstand the Saudi state.
Dr. Niang distinguishes between conventional power and strategic nuisance capacity. While Saudi Arabia's financial and military resources far exceed those of the Houthis, the conflict has shown that superior military strength does not guarantee victory against an asymmetric actor well-entrenched in its territory. The Houthis have survived airstrikes, retained Sanaa, and developed their drone and missile capabilities, demonstrating their continued nuisance capacity.
The crisis may test the new security architecture of the Mecca Alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The alliance's defense agreement stipulates that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Turkey has indicated it may contribute to addressing certain Saudi military needs. The question is not whether the Houthis can "defeat" Saudi Arabia militarily but whether they can impose a sufficiently high security, economic, and political cost to change Saudi Arabia's stance.
Key points
- The Houthis' geographical location, bordering the Red Sea and near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, is a significant factor in their growing influence.
- A potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have significant impacts on global energy markets.
- The Houthis' ability to impose a high security, economic, and political cost on Saudi Arabia may be the key to their success.
