The international system has witnessed a series of wars over the past five years, including the Russian–Ukrainian war, the war between Israel and Hamas, and the Israeli–Iranian war. Alongside these conflicts, the world is watching the evolution of US–China relations with considerable apprehension. The interactions between the two countries range from intense competition over emerging technologies to economic and financial disputes. Analysts have put forward two principal scenarios for the outcome of these interactions: one holding that military confrontation between the US and China is inevitable, and another that suggests confrontation is not inevitable, leaving open the possibility of an accommodation between the two powers.
The Trump–Xi summit of 24 September 2026, with its positive atmosphere and conciliatory rhetoric, has raised questions about whether it will inaugurate a US–China accommodation on the principal issues in dispute. However, several considerations suggest that the summit does not provide a firm basis for concluding that a strategic accommodation is taking shape. The summit was held only a few weeks before the US midterm elections, prompting some observers to link the meeting to President Trump’s electoral objectives.
China's distinctive approach to managing the contest over the structure of the international system may restrain a military clash. This approach stems partly from Chinese culture and traditions of conflict management, which prefer resolving conflicts gradually and over relatively long periods. China's relationship with the international system, given the benefits it has derived from the unipolar order since its emergence, is another factor that may prevent a military clash.
A fundamental transformation in China’s relationship with the United States will also remain contingent on an equally fundamental shift in Washington’s position on China’s central concern: Taiwan. The American shift Beijing expects extends beyond a review of US military and defence relations with Taiwan or visits by American officials to the island. It will certainly require a clear and unequivocal US position opposing the island’s independence.
The fact that the United States was compelled to withdraw military assets from the Pacific and redeploy them to the Middle East offers a telling illustration of China’s calculations. China may have no strategic interest in bringing an end to American involvement in issues far removed from China’s immediate neighbourhood and the Indo-Pacific more broadly.
Despite its significance, the latest Trump–Xi summit does not lay the foundations for a strategic shift in US–China relations, nor does it warrant talk of a strategic accord or understanding between the two powers. The summit serves primarily as an instrument for managing the current transitional phase in the transformation of the international order.
Given the importance of US–China relations, their repercussions for international peace and security, and the risks of unintended conflict, the international community will be closely watching the development of US–China interactions in the coming months and years. The two countries' relationship will likely have far-reaching implications for the global economy, international security, and the balance of power in the world.
Key points
- The Trump-Xi summit does not provide a firm basis for concluding that a strategic accommodation between the US and China is taking shape.
- A fundamental transformation in China’s relationship with the United States will require a clear and unequivocal US position opposing Taiwan’s independence.
- The summit serves primarily as an instrument for managing the current transitional phase in the transformation of the international order.
