The Democratic Party is optimistic about the US midterm elections, with high expectations driven by a historically unpopular Republican president and an American public concerned about rising costs. Favourable polls suggest they may gain control of the House of Representatives and make gains in the Senate. Recent surveys indicate Democratic candidates lead in over 218 seats needed to flip control of the House, and they are tied or ahead in key Senate races.
However, past US elections have seen public opinion polls prove inaccurate, even just days before the vote. Republican candidates, including Donald Trump, have outperformed predictions in previous elections. Trump's supporters, many of whom were not regular voters, flocked to the polls in higher-than-expected numbers, contributing to polling misses. This unpredictability can make a difference in close races, such as many of the key Senate contests this year.
According to Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, polling has become challenging due to Americans abandoning landlines and screening calls. Many contacted by pollsters are less willing to participate, particularly conservatives who are anti-establishment. If Republican voters are being undercounted, it could skew polling data towards the Democrats. This makes it trickier for pollsters to predict the electorate's composition.
Recent primary results have provided surprises, with some candidates winning by smaller margins than expected or losing despite polling leads. However, Young notes that nominating contests have historically been volatile, with voters making up their minds at the last minute. This shouldn't be seen as an indication that current general election polls are off the mark. Midterm general election polls have proven more accurate in recent years, particularly in 2022.
It's common for the party of the president to have a bad night in the midterms. In 2010, Republicans flipped over 60 House seats and made gains in the Senate due to economic concerns and fears over President Barack Obama's healthcare reforms. This time, Democrats are in opposition, and the economy is on voters' minds. However, there are reasons why Democrats may not have as good a night as expected, given Trump's low approval rating.
Many of the territories in play this election were conquered by Trump in the presidential election two years ago, making it a "home game" for Republicans. Changes to House election boundaries have resulted in fewer seats switching between parties, and deeper polarisation has reduced the number of swing voters. Republicans have also enjoyed a cash advantage, spending hundreds of millions of dollars on attack ads in the final weeks.
Despite these challenges, polling averages suggest Democrats are likely to have a good night on November 3. Polling inaccuracies can go both ways, and Democrats outperformed surveys in last year's state and special elections. The sight of Trump holding rallies in the final days of the campaign may have lifted Democrats' hopes, but voters can still change their minds right up until election day.
Key points
- Democrats are optimistic about the US midterm elections despite past polling inaccuracies.
- Recent surveys suggest Democrats may gain control of the House of Representatives and make gains in the Senate.
- Polling uncertainties, including undercounting of Republican voters, may impact the accuracy of current surveys.
