The Democratic Alliance (DA) has emerged as the largest party in five key municipalities in Gauteng, South Africa, but will require coalition deals to govern them. The municipalities include three metros and two secondary cities: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Emfuleni, and Mogale City. According to the results, the DA and the African National Congress (ANC) are the only parties that can anchor any coalition.
ActionSA, led by Herman Mashaba, has become a crucial player in forming majority coalitions across several councils. In Johannesburg, a DA-ActionSA coalition would easily gain a majority with the help of one more party, while the ANC would need ActionSA, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and at least two other parties. This development indicates that ActionSA will play a significant role in determining the governance of these municipalities.
In Tshwane, ActionSA is in second place and big enough to form a majority coalition with the DA on its own. The ANC would need the help of ActionSA, the EFF, and another party, such as the MK or the South African Communist Party (SACP). This scenario suggests that ActionSA has significant influence in Tshwane and can sway the balance of power in favour of either the DA or the ANC.
ActionSA also holds the key to forming a majority coalition in Ekurhuleni. The party could bring a majority to a DA-FF+ coalition or an ANC-EFF coalition. Compared to the 2021 elections, most of these options appear to be more stable, with less need to include small parties. Over the last five years, Johannesburg governments have needed between eight and 10 coalition partners; now one could be formed with just three.
In Mogale City, ActionSA will enjoy kingmaker status if the DA and ANC cannot come to terms. A DA-FF+-ActionSA coalition would hold a majority, while the ANC would need ActionSA, the EFF, and another one or two partners. This development gives ActionSA significant leverage in determining the governance of Mogale City.
Emfuleni presents a slightly different challenge, with the DA winning 27 wards from the ANC, including most of Evaton and Sebokeng. With its traditional coalition partner, the FF+, the DA would need just four more seats for a majority. These would likely have to come from ActionSA, as most of the smaller parties are unpalatable to the DA.
The ANC would have to convince nearly every other party to join a very shaky coalition with more than 10 partners in Emfuleni. However, a DA-ANC coalition could solve the most problems in this municipality, where the DA holds three-quarters of the ward seats. Ultimately, the formation of coalition governments will determine the governance of these municipalities in the coming years.
Key points
- ActionSA is central to forming majority coalitions in several Gauteng municipalities.
- The DA has a slightly easier job of building a coalition than the ANC in most municipalities.
- Coalition governments in Gauteng appear to be more stable than in the past, with fewer parties involved.
