The Comorian government has revised its 2026 budget forecasts, citing a slowdown in global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and rising import costs. On November 3, Finance Minister Moussa Abderemane presented the revised budget to the Union Assembly's finance committee. The revisions include a decrease in economic growth projections to 3.1% from 4.6% initially forecast. The inflation rate is expected to be around 3%, up from 2.1% in the initial projections.
The national economy is currently driven by private consumption, a gradual recovery in the tourism sector, and public infrastructure projects. According to Minister Abderemane, the country's economic activity is supported by these factors. The primary balance is now estimated at -1.17% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to -1.02% previously. The tax pressure is expected to reach 8.23%, down from 8.9% in the initial forecasts.
The revised budget was necessitated by difficulties in mobilizing domestic revenue, constraints on public investment financing, and new expenditure requirements. The government has increased its revenue and expenditure forecasts. The initial budget (LFA) had projected total revenue of 129.33 billion Comorian francs, with 82.44 billion in domestic revenue and 46.89 billion in external revenue.
The revised budget (LFR) now estimates total revenue at 143.14 billion Comorian francs, a 10.68% increase from the initial projections. Domestic revenue is expected to be 78.50 billion Comorian francs, a 4.78% decrease from the initial forecasts. In contrast, external revenue is projected to reach 64.64 billion Comorian francs, a 37.85% increase.
The revised budget also includes an increase in global expenditure to 156.60 billion Comorian francs, up from 133.43 billion in the initial budget. This represents a 17.36% increase. Domestic expenditure is now estimated at 90.70 billion Comorian francs, an 11.23% increase from the initial budget. Capital expenditure has risen to 65.90 billion Comorian francs from 43.86 billion in the initial budget.
The increase in expenditure is primarily due to the acquisition of equipment for the University Hospital Center (CHU), the construction of villages for the Indian Ocean Island Games, and the management of special allocation accounts and subsidies to the Comorian Hydrocarbons Society. The Public Investment Program (PIP) is estimated to be financed at 77.93 billion Comorian francs, with 19.03 billion covered by own funds.
The revised budget forecasts reflect the government's efforts to adjust to the current economic climate. The changes aim to ensure the continued implementation of public investment projects and social programs. The government will need to carefully manage its revenue and expenditure to achieve its objectives.
Key points
- The Comoros government has revised its 2026 budget forecasts, citing a slowdown in global economic growth and rising import costs.
- The revised budget includes a decrease in economic growth projections to 3.1% from 4.6% initially forecast.
- The government has increased its revenue and expenditure forecasts, with total revenue estimated at 143.14 billion Comorian francs.
