Cocoa prices have experienced a significant surge of 95.1% since the beginning of March 2026. This increase is attributed to fears of reduced crop yields in the 2026/27 season, primarily due to El Niño's adverse weather conditions. According to Fitch Solutions, a UK-based firm, these higher cocoa prices will partly offset lower production volumes in nominal export terms.
El Niño's adverse weather conditions are expected to place downward pressure on the 2026/27 cocoa output. Fitch Solutions forecasts cocoa production to be 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d'Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana. This implies a greater near-term supply pressure in Côte d'Ivoire, where output is forecast to decline by 17.5% year-on-year. In contrast, Ghana's production is expected to remain flat.
Fitch Solutions forecasts that cocoa prices will average US$4,990/tonne in 2026 and US$5,670/tonne in 2027. Although these prices are below the levels seen in 2024 and 2025, they are well above the 2014-2023 average of US$2,642/tonne. The benefit of higher prices will be most pronounced in Nigeria and Cameroon, where liberalised pricing mechanisms allow domestic prices to move more closely with global cocoa prices.
In Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, government-operated pricing mechanisms determine domestic cocoa prices. Both countries also forward sell their cocoa crop, usually three-to-six months ahead, which means there will be a lag before higher prices are reflected. As a result, gains will be more muted in these countries compared to Nigeria and Cameroon.
Higher cocoa prices also increase the incentive for farmers in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire to sell outside official channels. This could amplify export losses in both markets, as farmers have a stronger incentive to move cocoa into neighbouring countries where they can capture higher returns. In 2024 and 2025, when global cocoa prices reached record highs, neighbouring economies such as Guinea and Togo saw steep increases in cocoa exports.
A renewed rise in smuggling would further reduce officially recorded cocoa exports from Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. According to Fitch Solutions, this could have significant implications for the cocoa industry in these countries. The firm's forecasts suggest that elevated cocoa prices will aid nominal exports somewhat, but the impact will be limited by the factors mentioned above.
The cocoa industry in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire is likely to face significant challenges in the 2026/27 season due to El Niño's adverse weather conditions. While higher cocoa prices will provide some support, the impact of lower production volumes and potential smuggling will need to be closely monitored. The situation will likely have implications for the broader economy, particularly in terms of export earnings and the livelihoods of cocoa farmers.
Key points
- Cocoa prices have risen by 95.1% since March 2026 due to El Niño's adverse weather conditions threatening the 2026/27 crop yields.
- Fitch Solutions forecasts cocoa production to be 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d'Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana for the 2026/27 season.
- Cocoa prices are forecast to average US$4,990/tonne in 2026 and US$5,670/tonne in 2027, according to Fitch Solutions.
