Cocoa prices have experienced a significant surge of 95.1% since the beginning of March 2026. This increase is attributed to concerns over reduced crop yields in the 2026/27 season. According to Fitch Solutions, a UK-based firm, the adverse weather conditions caused by El Niño are expected to impact cocoa production. The firm forecasts cocoa production to be 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana.
The rise in cocoa prices is expected to partly offset lower production volumes in nominal export terms. Fitch Solutions now forecasts cocoa prices to average US$4,990/tonne in 2026 and US$5,670/tonne in 2027. These prices are well above the 2014-2023 average of US$2,642/tonne. The benefit of higher prices will be more pronounced in Nigeria and Cameroon, where domestic prices can move more closely with global cocoa prices due to liberalised pricing mechanisms.
In contrast, gains will be more muted in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where government-operated pricing mechanisms determine domestic cocoa prices. Both countries also forward sell their cocoa crop, usually three-to-six months ahead, which means there will be a lag before higher prices are reflected. This could lead to a situation where farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have a stronger incentive to sell cocoa outside official channels.
When global prices rise well above domestic farmgate prices, farmers have a stronger incentive to move cocoa into neighbouring countries where they can capture higher returns. In both 2024 and 2025, when global cocoa prices reached record highs, neighbouring economies such as Guinea and Togo saw steep increases in cocoa exports. A renewed rise in smuggling would further reduce officially recorded cocoa exports from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
The forecast for cocoa production in the 2026/27 season indicates a decline of 17.5% year-on-year in Côte d’Ivoire, while Ghana’s production is expected to remain flat. This implies greater near-term supply pressure in Côte d’Ivoire. The UK-based firm, Fitch Solutions, provides analysis on the cocoa market and its trends.
The increase in cocoa prices will have varying impacts on different countries. While Nigeria and Cameroon are expected to benefit from higher prices, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana may see more muted gains. The governments of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana operate pricing mechanisms that determine domestic cocoa prices, which can affect the benefits farmers receive from higher global prices.
The current cocoa price surge is expected to have significant implications for cocoa-producing countries. With El Niño’s adverse weather conditions affecting cocoa production, the 2026/27 season is expected to see reduced crop yields. As a result, cocoa prices are likely to remain high, impacting the economies of countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Key points
- Cocoa prices have risen by 95.1% since March 2026 due to fears of reduced crop yields in the 2026/27 season.
- Fitch Solutions forecasts cocoa prices to average US$4,990/tonne in 2026 and US$5,670/tonne in 2027.
- The benefit of higher cocoa prices will be more pronounced in Nigeria and Cameroon, while gains will be more muted in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
