Cobalt prices have been on a downward trend since the summer, after surging in 2025 due to export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to Radio France Internationale, the decline is attributed to the resumption of Chinese supplies, an increase in recycling, and sluggish demand. The DRC is a major producer of cobalt, and its export restrictions had led to a significant increase in prices last year.
The recent decline in prices is also linked to the arrival of cobalt shipments from the DRC in China, which had been delayed due to logistical issues. These shipments are expected to ease supply tensions in the Chinese market, which has a significant impact on global prices. Tom Kavanagh, a metal price assessor for Argus Media, notes that these supplies will also serve as a buffer against potential regulatory changes in the DRC.
The DRC's regulatory body, the Autorité de régulation et de contrôle des marchés des substances minérales stratégiques (ARECOMS), has not ruled out revising export quotas if the supply-demand imbalance worsens. The country's cobalt exports are a significant contributor to the global market, and any changes to quotas could impact prices. Meanwhile, China has been increasing its cobalt recycling capacity, with an estimated annual production of 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of recycled cobalt.
Despite the decline in prices, the cobalt market is still subject to supply tensions. The DRC's cobalt production is a significant contributor to the global market, and any disruptions to its exports could lead to price volatility. Additionally, Indonesia's cobalt production is expected to decrease in 2026 due to higher sulfuric acid prices and sulfur supply issues, but Argus Media expects a rebound in 2027.
The decline in cobalt prices has been significant, with the hydroxide of cobalt, a primary export from the DRC, losing nearly 43% of its value between July and mid-October. The cobalt sulfate price has dropped by over 35% during the same period, while the metallic cobalt price has fallen by 16%. The weak demand for cobalt has also contributed to the price decline.
The cobalt market is expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. The growth of recycling in China has added to the global supply, while demand remains sluggish due to excess stocks. According to the Cobalt Institute, buyers in China are cautious due to high inventory levels, which need to be cleared.
Looking ahead, the cobalt market is expected to be influenced by several factors, including production levels in Indonesia and regulatory changes in the DRC. Argus Media expects a 30,000-tonne increase in global cobalt production in 2027, which could put further downward pressure on prices. The market is also likely to be impacted by changes in demand, particularly from China, which is a significant consumer of cobalt.
Key points
- Cobalt prices have declined due to increased Chinese supplies, recycling, and weak demand.
- The DRC's cobalt exports and regulatory changes could impact global prices.
- Indonesia's cobalt production is expected to rebound in 2027, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
