Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso remains a significant figure in Nigerian politics, particularly in Kano State and Northern Nigeria. With a career spanning over three decades, Kwankwaso has held various positions, including two terms as governor of Kano State, Minister of Defence, and Senator. His political brand, known as "Kwankwasiyya," focuses on mass education, infrastructure, healthcare, and engagement with the poor and youth. This movement has become an identity for many in Kano.
In 2023, Kwankwaso contested the presidential election on the platform of the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP) and won Kano State convincingly with 1,496,687 votes. The NNPP also won the Kano governorship election with Abba Kabir Yusuf as the candidate, defeating the APC's Nasiru Gawuna. This victory was attributed to the "Kwankwasiyya" grassroots structure, anti-incumbency sentiment, and a protest vote against the establishment. The NNPP became the dominant force in Kano politics.
However, internal conflicts within the NNPP led to a split, with Kwankwaso and Governor Abba Yusuf parting ways. The crisis deepened, and the two leaders went separate ways, with Kwankwaso joining the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and emerging as the party's Vice Presidential candidate. This move signals Kwankwaso's quest for a national platform and a return to opposition politics.
The split between Kwankwaso and Abba Yusuf has changed the 2027 political calculation in Kano State. Kwankwaso has lost the Kano State Government structure, which is now controlled by Yusuf and his APC allies. However, Kwankwaso still retains the "Kwankwasiyya" brand, grassroots network, and personal followership. The 2027 test will be whether loyalty is to Kwankwaso the man or to the government of the day.
The APC, now stronger in Kano, will campaign on "unity" and "federal projects" for Kano, arguing that Kwankwaso abandoned the government he helped build. However, as the NDC's Vice Presidential candidate, Kwankwaso has a national platform and will not just be fighting for Kano but also campaigning for the presidency.
Kwankwaso's strengths include his enduring popularity in Kano, the loyalty of his followers, and his national platform as the NDC's Vice Presidential candidate. However, his weaknesses include the loss of the Kano State Government structure and the APC's strengthened position in the state.
The 2027 election will be a significant test for Kwankwaso, as he seeks to retain his influence in Kano State and contribute to the opposition's success at the national level. His ability to mobilize his followers and articulate a compelling vision for Kano and Nigeria will be crucial in determining his success.
Key points
- Kwankwaso's enduring popularity in Kano and his national platform as the NDC's Vice Presidential candidate are significant strengths.
- The APC's strengthened position in Kano and the loss of the Kano State Government structure are challenges for Kwankwaso.
- The 2027 election will be a test of loyalty to Kwankwaso and his ability to articulate a compelling vision for Kano and Nigeria.
