A recent Bobea Research poll has placed Busia Governor Paul Otuoma at 66% in the 2027 gubernatorial contest, giving him an early lead in the race. The survey, released on October 5, was conducted across the county and provides a snapshot of voter preferences ahead of the 2027 General Election. Otuoma's lead is significant, with his closest competitor, Arthur Osia, trailing behind at 22%. The poll also shows that 8% of respondents prefer Eng. Vincent Sidai, while 4% are undecided.
According to the Bobea Countywide Tracker, which covers all seven constituencies in Busia, Otuoma leads in five constituencies: Matayos, Nambale, Butula, Funyula, and Budalangi. In each of these constituencies, Otuoma recorded more than 60% support. Osia, on the other hand, leads in the two Teso region constituencies: Teso South and Teso North. Sidai placed second in both of these constituencies. The poll results indicate that Otuoma has a strong showing across the county.
The Bobea Research poll gives Otuoma a 44-percentage-point lead over Osia. The organisation uses multi-stage stratified sampling and face-to-face field data collection to conduct its public opinion work. Bobea Report describes itself as an independent public opinion and market research organisation that conducts political research and voter sentiment tracking across Kenya's 47 counties. The poll provides valuable insights into voter preferences in Busia.
Busia County is located in the western part of Kenya, bordering Uganda to the west, Bungoma to the north, Kakamega to the east, Siaya to the south-east, and Lake Victoria to the south-west. The county covers approximately 1,694.5 square kilometres and has seven constituencies: Teso North, Teso South, Funyula, Nambale, Matayos, Butula, and Budalang'i. Busia's location makes it an important hub for cross-border commerce.
The county's economy is driven by agriculture, fishing, and trade. Sugarcane, maize, beans, sweet potatoes, millet, and cassava are among the crops grown in the county, while fishing is concentrated around Lake Victoria. Cross-border trade is also a significant part of the local economy, with the Busia and Malaba border points serving as major crossings. The county's 2019 population was 893,681.
Paul Otuoma became the Governor of Busia after the 2022 election, defeating then-Nambale MP John Bunyasi. Before his governorship, Otuoma served as the Member of Parliament for Funyula from 2007 to 2017 and held ministerial positions in the Grand Coalition Government, including Local Government and Fisheries, Youth and Sports. As governor, his administration has prioritised agro-processing, infrastructure, healthcare, education, and creating a conducive environment for trade.
Otuoma's lead in the Bobea Research poll positions him as a strong contender in the 2027 gubernatorial contest. However, the poll also shows that a significant proportion of voters prefer other candidates, indicating a competitive race ahead. The county's voters will have to make a decision based on the candidates' policies and track records.
Key points
- Paul Otuoma leads in five of Busia's seven constituencies.
- Otuoma has a 44-percentage-point lead over his closest competitor, Arthur Osia.
- The Bobea Research poll provides a snapshot of voter preferences ahead of the 2027 General Election.
