Brazil's 2026 presidential election has been declared a runoff, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerging as the top two candidates. According to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, TSE, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of valid votes, while Lula polled 45.16%. The runoff is set for October 25, as neither candidate secured the required majority of valid votes.
The first-round result was closer than several pre-election polls had suggested, with Flávio finishing ahead of Lula by less than two percentage points. Flávio received over 56 million votes, while Lula received about 53.9 million votes. This leaves both campaigns with little room for complacency ahead of the second round. The official figures have strengthened the position of the Bolsonaro political camp.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator representing Rio de Janeiro and is contesting the presidency for the first time. He is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and is running under the Liberal Party. His running mate is federal lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar. Lula, 80, is seeking another term after returning to the presidency in 2023 and previously served as president from 2003 to 2010.
The runoff has placed Brazil's presidency at the centre of another contest between the political forces represented by Lula's Workers' Party and the Bolsonaro family's conservative movement. The October 25 vote will determine whether Lula remains in power or whether the presidency passes to another member of the Bolsonaro political family. Right-wing parties made significant gains in Brazil's congressional elections.
The Liberal Party emerged as the biggest single-party winner in the congressional elections, increasing its representation in the Senate from 15 to 28 seats and securing 121 seats in the lower house. The Senate result represented the party's strongest representation since Brazil returned to democracy in the late 1980s. This could affect the ability of the next administration to advance legislation and implement major economic policies.
Lula faces a challenge from a strong Bolsonaro showing, with over 53.7 million Brazilians voting for Lula and just over 56 million for Flávio. The second round begins with both candidates well short of a majority, leaving millions of voters who supported other candidates potentially important to the final outcome. Lula's campaign is expected to focus on his record in government and seek to consolidate support among voters who identify with the political centre and left.
The outcome of the runoff will extend beyond Brazil's domestic politics, as the country is Latin America's largest economy and one of the most influential countries in the Global South. The next administration will have to manage Brazil's relationships with major economic partners, including the United States and China, while determining its approach to regional affairs, climate policy and international institutions.
Key points
- The runoff has placed Brazil's presidency at the centre of another contest between the political forces represented by Lula's Workers' Party and the Bolsonaro family's conservative movement.
- Right-wing parties made significant gains in Brazil's congressional elections, giving the Bolsonaro camp an additional source of political strength ahead of the runoff.
- The outcome of the runoff will extend beyond Brazil's domestic politics, as the country is Latin America's largest economy and one of the most influential countries in the Global South.
