The Democratic Party's recent seizure of control of both houses of the US Congress has raised hopes that South Africa can restore its relations with the US, which have been damaged by the hostility of the Trump administration. President Cyril Ramaphosa believes the Democratic landslide could introduce a new era in world relations, given the significant influence of the US economy. Ramaphosa expressed willingness to have good relations with the US.
The Democratic victory, which saw them win control of 54 seats in the 100-seat Senate and at least 245 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, was seen as a rebuke of President Donald Trump. Many commentators believe it's the end of the Trump era, with the president now being the lamest of lame ducks. Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition John Steenhuisen noted that the "complete and utter repudiation of Trump and his Maga movement" could create opportunities for South Africa.
Steenhuisen and other analysts believe that with Democrats in key positions, South Africa may get a more sympathetic hearing from Congress, particularly on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee. This could help address falsehoods peddled about South Africa in those committees. Bob Wekesa, director of the African Centre for the Study of the US at Wits University, agreed that the Democratic blue wave was "great news" for South Africa.
One of the key areas where South Africa may benefit is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which the Trump administration recently decided to remove South Africa from. Democrats have condemned the decision, warning that it could hand China a strategic advantage. However, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, national director of the SA Institute of International Affairs, cautioned that the president still has the final say on South Africa's eligibility for Agoa.
Despite this, Steenhuisen suggested that South Africa should consider negotiating a conventional reciprocal free trade agreement with the US, which would not be at the whim of the US president. Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Parks Tau noted that Agoa remains important to South Africa, but it does not constitute the totality of the economic relationship between South Africa and the US.
Some analysts see the Democratic victory as an opportunity to reduce other US trade tariffs on South Africa, as Congress has more power over tariffs. A Washington-based Africa expert noted that Congress may be able to regain control over tariffs, leading to a reduction in tariff barriers facing South Africa. This could facilitate a broader review of US-SA relations, leading to further cooperation.
The Democratic victory may also lead to a long-term renewal of Agoa, which expires in December 2028. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has stated that overturning Trump's tariffs would be a top priority for Democrats in their first 100 days. Agoa also enjoys the support of many Republicans in Congress, which could lead to a bipartisan effort to support South Africa.
Key points
- The Democratic control of the US Congress may help South Africa repair its strained relations with Washington.
- South Africa may benefit from a more sympathetic hearing from Congress, particularly on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee.
- The Democratic victory may lead to a reduction in US trade tariffs on South Africa and a long-term renewal of Agoa.
