The African Union Commission issued a statement on October 1 calling on Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise "maximum restraint". However, within 72 hours, the Commission was rebuked by Egypt and walked back its own words. Egypt's response was swift, with an unnamed official source calling the statement an "incomprehensible attempt" to drag Egypt into what it insists is a purely internal Ethiopian matter.
The crisis is a chain of ruptures, starting with Ethiopia expelling ten Eritrean diplomats and closing its embassy in Asmara, accusing Eritrea of backing armed opponents of the federal government. Eritrea responded by severing ties altogether. Addis Ababa then declared an Egyptian diplomat, Ahmed Moharram Ahmed, persona non grata and gave him 48 hours to leave. Cairo reciprocated by expelling a counsellor at the Ethiopian embassy.
The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia remains a long-standing issue, centered on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the waters of the Nile. Ethiopia's persistent push for sovereign access to the Red Sea collides with an Eritrean coastline Asmara guards jealously. The tripartite summit in Asmara in October 2024 drew Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia into a loose alignment that Addis Ababa has never trusted.
The Commission's clarification stated that no blame had been assigned, sovereignty and non-interference were sacrosanct, and Egypt, as a founding member, was a partner of "particular importance". However, analysts argue that the episode is a symptom of an informal political hierarchy inside a Union whose founding charter promises sovereign equality.
The Commission's defenders argue that it is a secretariat and not a court, and that mediation requires the trust of every party. However, a body that can only speak when no member objects will, in a crisis, not speak at all. The deeper cost is in what the clarification now forbids, as the Commission has committed itself to commenting on no "internal developments of any member state".
The African Union's own peace deal, brokered in 2022, meant to end the Tigray war, is now considered an internal matter. There is no public sign that Addis Ababa, Asmara, or Cairo has accepted the Commission's offer of support for de-escalation. Three capitals have emptied their embassies of one another's diplomats, and the Horn of Africa does not wait for the African Union to find its nerve.
The continent deserves a Union that has decided to serve its members equally, rather than adjusting its language to appease a particular member. The incident raises questions about the African Union's role in mediating conflicts and its ability to speak out on internal developments in member states.
Key points
- The African Union Commission walked back a statement calling for restraint in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt after Cairo rebuked the statement.
- The incident highlights the challenges faced by the African Union in mediating conflicts between member states.
- The African Union's role in promoting peace and security in the region has been called into question.
