Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the 2026 general elections. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces a major challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The US is watching the outcome closely, with President Donald Trump having expressed delight at Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 election victory and support for Flávio Bolsonaro, promoting him as a "smart young man who loves his country".
The US has used overt economic and political pressure to influence Brazil's domestic affairs since Lula's return to power in 2023. In July 2025, Trump wrote to Lula, denouncing Bolsonaro's prosecution as a "witch hunt" and announcing a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil. The tariffs were dropped in February this year after the US Supreme Court ruled they were unlawful, but new tariffs of 25% were imposed on some imports from Brazil in July.
The Trump administration has explicitly promised to restore US "preeminence" in the Western Hemisphere through political alignment, tariffs, financial leverage, and control over strategic assets. However, international law prohibits coercive intervention in another state's sovereign political choices. US tariffs on Brazil could violate the principle of non-intervention, particularly if intended to influence the country's electoral process.
US technology platforms have also played a role in applying broader pressure on Brazil. In January 2025, Mark Zuckerberg pledged that Meta would "work with President Trump to push back" on governments around the world, citing Latin America's "secret courts". The White House later echoed this language, accusing Brazil's Supreme Court of issuing "secret orders" to censor political speech.
Meta has come under fire for its handling of election disinformation in Brazil. A controlled audit by the corporate accountability group Eko found that Meta approved 13 out of 15 AI-generated test ads that were modelled on political disinformation circulating in Brazil. The ads included incitement against a lawmaker, a call for supporters to "retake Brasília", and false claims that Trump had formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro.
Brazil's electoral court has given Meta ten days to explain why the ads submitted in Eko's test were accepted. Meta has stated that its "ad analysis process has several layers of review and detection, both before and after ads are published" and has reinforced its commitment to protecting the electoral process on its platforms. However, the incident has raised concerns about the company's ability to detect and block election disinformation.
The outcome of Brazil's election has stakes beyond the country, with implications for Latin American democracies and their ability to withstand US pressure. The election is also being closely watched by international observers, who are concerned about the influence of US tech companies and the potential for interference in the electoral process.
Key points
- The US has used economic and political pressure to influence Brazil's domestic affairs.
- US technology platforms have played a role in applying broader pressure on Brazil.
- The outcome of Brazil's election has implications for Latin American democracies and their ability to withstand US pressure.
