ANC Suffers Significant Losses in Gauteng Municipal Elections

The African National Congress (ANC) suffered significant losses in the recent municipal elections in Gauteng, South Africa's economic hub. The party's electoral support declined further as voters grew disillusioned with service delivery. Analysts attribute the decline to the ANC's failure to honour its social contract, particularly in delivering basic services. The ANC failed to win any of Gauteng's three metros: Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Johannesburg, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) emerging as the leading party in all three.

According to elections analyst Wayne Sussman, the ANC will have no proportional representation councillors in the three Gauteng metros, only ward councillors. Sussman described the ANC's losses as a "very, very difficult and devastating blow." Nelson Mandela University political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast noted that voters have taken their sense of urgency seriously and have fallen out of love with the ANC due to its slow pace of service delivery. The ANC's electoral support has been declining in the local government sector over the years, from 64.8% in 2006 to 45.5% in 2021.

In the Johannesburg metro, the DA led with 34.7%, followed by the ANC with 20.2%, ActionSA with 16.2%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 6.5%. Similar results were seen in Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, with the DA leading in both metros. The Gauteng metros are critical to South Africa's economy, accounting for about a third of the country's GDP. They are also at the centre of the country's service delivery challenges, including water supply, electricity, roads, waste management, and public transport.

Economist Duma Gqubule called for President Cyril Ramaphosa's resignation, citing his poor economic record and declining popularity. Gqubule described Ramaphosa as the least popular ANC president since 1994. Political analyst Kelvin Knowles noted that the ANC's decline is part of a larger trend, with former liberation movements typically having a 25-year lifespan in government if they do not transition into modern political parties.

The upcoming coalition talks across the metros are expected to be complex, with a strong push to limit coalitions to just two or three parties to avoid instability. The DA and ANC are likely to play a significant role in these negotiations, with the DA having absolute no-go red lines when it comes to the MK party and the EFF. Knowles suggested that a "horses for courses" arrangement may be reached, where the metros are carved up among the parties.

North West University Business School economist Raymond Parsons noted that the successful conclusion of the municipal elections sends a positive message that holding "free and fair" elections can be good for the economy. Parsons emphasised the importance of functional local governments in driving economic growth and improving the investment climate. He called for less partisanship and more progress in the formation of new administrations.

The ANC's losses in the Gauteng metros have significant implications for the country's economic growth and service delivery. The metros of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Tshwane have large budgets, with Johannesburg allocating R97.1 billion, Ekurhuleni R71 billion, and Tshwane R58.5 billion for the 2026/27 financial year. The formation of stable municipal administrations capable of driving economic development and improving service delivery is crucial.

Key points

• ANC's electoral support declines in Gauteng metros as DA emerges as leading party.
• ANC's losses attributed to failure to honour social contract and deliver basic services.
• Coalition talks expected to be complex, with DA and ANC playing significant roles.