With just over a month until South Africa's November 4 Local Government Elections, the battle for the country's major metros is intensifying. The ANC and DA are facing closely contested races in several cities, while the MK Party has emerged as a major contender in eThekwini. Ipsos polling shows that the ANC and DA are closely matched in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City.
The DA, EFF, ActionSA, uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party), and several other parties have announced candidates for key mayoral races, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini. However, the ANC has yet to announce its final mayoral candidates for any of the country's eight metropolitan municipalities. The party unveiled 42 potential candidates in August, leaving its national officials to make the final selections.
The latest Ipsos polling paints different pictures across the metros. The ANC and DA are closely matched in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City, while the DA records 46% support in Cape Town. MK recorded 55% in eThekwini, while the EFF reached 27% in Buffalo City. ActionSA recorded double-digit support in Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni. The Ipsos findings are based on interviews with 3,600 South Africans conducted in June and July.
UKZN political analyst Dr. Siyabonga Ntombela identified Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay as metros where the contest could be particularly close. The races could also have significant implications for coalition governments, with analysts saying the final council make-up may be as important as which party comes out on top. Johannesburg has 75 parties contesting the proportional representation ballot.
In Johannesburg, the ANC and DA remain closely matched, with ActionSA also recording double-digit support in the Ipsos poll. Ntombela said the DA had made gains in the metro following Helen Zille's mayoral candidacy. A Polymarket prediction market tracking the next Johannesburg mayor also had Zille at 67.5% in the October 1 snapshot.
The political picture is different in eThekwini, where Ipsos recorded 55% support for MK among voters who selected a party. In the 2021 local government election in eThekwini, the ANC received 42.02% of the vote, followed by the DA on 26.62% and the EFF on 10.48%. Ntombela said MK will have the lion's share but will need one or two smaller parties to co-govern with.
Cape Town remains the strongest metro for the DA in the Ipsos polling, with the party on 46%. Ipsos said the DA could potentially exceed 50% as campaigning continues. Ntombela said the DA was comfortably placed, with slim chances of a coalition government. Nelson Mandela Bay, Mangaung, and other metros also show competitive races between the ANC and DA.
Key points
- The ANC and DA are facing closely contested races in several major metros.
- The MK Party has emerged as a major contender in eThekwini.
- Coalition negotiations could again prove decisive after the votes are counted.
